3 دقيقة نظام التداول إميني أفضل برامج الضرائب لتداول الخيارات 35pip كوم مراجعة فوركس السلام الجيش الفوركس الأخبار غب جبي الخيارات الثنائية استراتيجية التقويم الاقتصادي تداول الفوركس أمر مستحيل
كيفية كسب المال على التبادل الرهان.
تاريخ النشر: 27 سبتمبر 2018 - تحديث: 23 نوفمبر 2017.
وجاءت ثورة الإنترنت إلى المراهنات الرياضية في عجلة من امرنا. ومع دخولنا الألفية الجديدة، ومع ازدياد عدد سكان العالم عبر الإنترنت، قامت العديد من شركات صناعة الكتب بالمثل، كل على أمل الاستيلاء على حصتها من الاندفاع الذهبي. نجح البعض، وتأسيس أنفسهم لاعبين رئيسيين في هذه الحقبة الجديدة من صناعة الكتب، في حين أن العديد من المتعثرة وفشلت.
في حين أن الغالبية اتبعت شكل الكتب التقليدية، وتقدم احتمالات ما قبل المباراة على الأسواق البالية جيدا، مجموعة مبتكرة من رجال الأعمال وضعت لتغيير صناعة الرهان إلى الأبد. مع صعود المراهنة على الانترنت حتى جاء أيضا صعود التبادلات الرهان.
الجزء الأول: أساسيات تبادل الرهان.
1. ما هو تبادل الرهان؟ 2. كيف الرهان تبادل العمل؟ 3. كيف التباين التبادلات تختلف من المراهنات التقليدية؟ 4. كيفية العثور على الرهانات القيمة على تبادل الرهان 5. ما هو بيت مطابقة؟ 6. ما هو الرهان الخلفي وكيف يعمل؟ 7. ما هو الرهان وضع وكيف يعمل؟ 8. ما هي رسوم الهيئة؟ 9. الرهان تبادل لجنة حاسبة 10. ما هو بيتفير النقدية خارج؟ 11. أي تبادل الرهان هو حق لكم؟
الجزء الثاني: التداول من أجل الربح على التبادل الرهان.
12. كيفية كسب المال التداول على الرهان التبادل 13. الأخطاء الشائعة التجار الجدد جعل 14. كيفية حساب التجارة في الرهان التبادل 15. كيفية التداول للحصول على الربح بالتأكيد 16. كيفية حساب الرهان الحرة 17. أفضل الرهان التبادل استراتيجيات التداول 18. ما هو سلخ فروة الرأس؟ 19. ما هو التداول البديل؟ 20. أفضل برامج التداول 21. أفضل استراتيجيات التداول لكرة القدم 22. أفضل سباق الخيل استراتيجيات التداول 23. أفضل استراتيجيات التداول التنس.
1. ما هو تبادل الرهان؟
ليس سرا أن ظهور مراهنات التبادل لم يطعن في المراهنات التقليديات فحسب، بل أجبرهن في النهاية على تغيير الطريقة التي عملن بها، في بعض الحالات لعقود. في حين سعى بعض عمالقة صناعة الرهان ببساطة لفرض عفا عليها الزمن "حاليا" نموذج الأعمال لعالم جديد على الانترنت، كان التبادلات الرهان الذي يفهم حقا إمكانيات وإمكانيات المراهنات الرياضية على شبكة الإنترنت.
من المأمول القول أنه بدون التبادل، قد لا نرى أبدا في الرهان في اللعب، أو أكثر منافسة الرهان خلاف، ميزات التداول مثل النقد خارج فضلا عن التوسع المطرد للأسواق الرهان.
تهديد للمراهنات التقليدية.
في حين ارتفعت شعبية الرهان التبادلات ارتفعت، والدينامية الأساسية للتبادل الرهان شهدت تحديات عديدة، انتقادات شديدة، وليس من المستغرب من أولئك الذين لديهم مهتمة في نموذج المراهنات التقليدية. في أيامه الأولى، أشار رالف توبينغ وليام هيل مرة واحدة إلى بيتفير بأنها "مجتمع سري ضخم حيث تجري المقامرة غير القانونية" في حين أعرب لادبروكيس 'سين بويس عن مخاوف تتعلق على وجه التحديد بالضغط التنافسي الذي كان بيتفير على خلاف التي تقدمها المراهنات التقليدية.
مع تزايد حجم المال الرهان من خلال التبادلات بدلا من المراهنات المحلات التجارية، وهو الاتجاه الذي يخل نماذج التمويل التقليدية في صناعة سباق المملكة المتحدة، يعتقد لاعبو الصناعة الرئيسية أن بيتفير وغيرها من التبادلات الرهان يهدد المستقبل المالي لصناعة سباق في المملكة المتحدة ، ناهيك عن التهديدات المتصورة لسلامة هذه الرياضة، ويدعو الكثيرون إلى حظر عمليات التبادل كلية. واعتبرت القدرة على "وضع" حصان، تراهن أساسا ضده للفوز، مشكلة خاصة مع المطلعين على الصناعة المعنية بأن ثقة الجمهور في السباقات سوف تقوض.
ماذا يمكنك الرهان في تبادل الرهان؟
مع نمو شعبية التبادلات الرهان، كما تنمو عدد وتنوع الأسواق على العرض. تقدم التبادلات الرهان الآن اتساع وعمق مماثل من الأسواق المتاحة كما تلك التي تقدمها المراهنات الرائدة في هذه الصناعة.
وعلى الرغم من أن الأسواق قد تكون متاحة، فإن السيولة السوقية لا يمكن ضمانها دائما. بيتفير، ماتشبوك وبيتداق لديها مستويات مختلفة من السيولة على بطولات الدوري الأوروبية الكبرى، مع سيولة عالية متوفرة في البطولات مثل الدوري الممتاز ومباريات دوري أبطال أوروبا، ولا سيما تلك التي تضم النوادي الشعبية والمسابقات التلفزيونية.
السيولة المتاحة في سباق الخيل في المملكة المتحدة هي أيضا عادلة، على الرغم من أنها تميل إلى الارتفاع بسرعة مع نهج السباق. قد تجد صعوبة في الحصول على ظهرك أو وضع الرهان المتطابقة في التداول في الصباح الباكر.
إذا كنت تفضل الرهان أو التداول على الرياضة الأمريكية، فمن المرجح أن يكون تفضيلك المفضل. في حين أن قائمة طعامهم من الأسواق قد تكون محدودة بالمقارنة مع تبادل مثل بيتفير، ماتشبوك يوفر سيولة متفوقة من الرياضة الأمريكية مثل نفل، الدوري الاميركي للمحترفين، نهل و ملب.
2. كيف الرهان تبادل العمل؟
إذا كنت على دراية فقط مع المراهنات التقليدية، ثم شكل تبادل الرهان يمكن أن يبدو مربكا قليلا في البداية. ولكن بمجرد أن نقدر الفرق، فإن عدد لا يحصى من الفرص لكل من الرهان والتجارة أصبحت واضحة على نحو متزايد. من خلال أن تصبح "المتداول" والدهاء، وسوف تجد التبادلات الرهان لتكون مصدرا كبيرا الأرباح المحتملة، وتقدم مقاتلة داهية والخيال لقفل الأرباح، في كثير من الحالات قبل أن يعرف النتيجة النهائية حتى.
في حين أن مراهنات التقليدية يوفر لك فرصة لوضع رهان مع مراهنات، التبادلات الرهان تقدم العقاب القدرة على الرهان ضد المعتدين الآخرين، مع تبادل تعمل أساسا كمسهل أو وسيط بين الاثنين.
فهم أساسيات تبادل الرهان.
مربك؟ لا ينبغي أن يكون. فكر في هذه الطريقة. كنت جالسا مع صديق يشاهد مباراة كرة القدم بعد ظهر السبت. أنت تقول أنك تعتقد أن مباراة أرسنال ضد مانشستر يونايتد ستنتهي بثلاث أهداف على الأقل بعد ظهر اليوم. صديقك غير موافق ويقول أنه يتوقع أن يكون التهديف منخفضة وانه سوف تعطيك حتى المال خلاف أنه سيكون هناك 2 أهداف على الأكثر في المباراة.
كنت تحب صوت هذا الرهان وكنت على حد سواء توافق على الرهان والجنيه؛ 20.
إذا انتهت المباراة مع 3 أو أكثر من الأهداف، يمكنك الفوز في الرهان والمطالبة & الجنيه؛ 20 من صديقك. إذا انتهت المباراة مع 2 أهداف أو أقل، تخسر وتدفع و الجنيه؛ 20 لصديقك. تبدو مألوفة؟ بالتأكيد، لقد فعلنا كل هذا عدة مرات بين الأصدقاء. حسنا، هذا هو أساسا كيف الرهان التبادلات العمل، مطابقة العقاب مع وجهات النظر المعارضة على نتيجة معينة الذين عبر التبادل جعل اتفاق على كل من حصة و خلاف.
وهناك مثال أساسي: مانشستر سيتي للفوز دوري أبطال أوروبا.
ما المستخدمين تبادل العادية وخاصة نقدر هو أن تبادل الرهان يتيح لك الفرصة لكل من 'العودة' و 'وضع' نتيجة. ماهو الفرق؟
كذلك الفرق هو المفتاح وهو ما يجعل الرهان عبر تبادل الرهان تجربة ديناميكية أنه يمكن أن يكون.
عندما كنت 'العودة' نتيجة، كنت تراهن على نتيجة معينة أن يحدث. هل تعتقد أن مانشستر سيتي ستفوز بدوري أبطال أوروبا هذا العام؟ يمكنك إعادتها على خلاف على العرض في البورصة، تماما كما تفعل مع مراهنات نموذجية.
ولكن ماذا لو كنت تعتقد أن مانشستر سيتي لن يفوز بدوري أبطال أوروبا هذا الموسم؟
جمال تبادل الرهان هو أنه يتيح لك الفرصة ل "لاي"، للمراهنة ضد نتيجة، في هذه الحالة، مانشستر سيتي الفوز في دوري ابطال اوروبا. يمكنك أن تفعل الشيء نفسه مع أي سوق الرهان المتاحة في البورصة. في وضع مانشستر سيتي، كنت تأخذ أساسا دور مراهنات، وتقدم خلاف على مانشستر سيتي للفوز في دوري ابطال اوروبا، على أمل أن آخر المقامر على تبادل مثل فرص مانشستر سيتي على خلاف كنت تقدم، والاتفاق على الرهان و دعمهم.
وسوف نخوض في هذا بمزيد من التفصيل في وقت لاحق في دليلنا، ولكن في الوقت الراهن من المهم أن نقدر الفرق بين دعم ووضع نتائج والإمكانات الديناميكية وهذا يتيح المعاقبة الداهية، لا سيما عندما نأتي للنظر في الرهان في اللعب. القدرة على كل من الظهر ووضع هي النداء الأساسي لنموذج تبادل الرهان، والمرونة للعملاء للعمل إما المقامر أو مراهنات. يمكنك أن تفكر في ذلك مثل البورصة، مع التجار شراء (دعم) وبيع (وضع) سهم على نتائج الحدث الرياضي.
3. كيف التباين التبادلات تختلف من المراهنات التقليدية؟
كما نوقش في المقدمة لدينا، وتبادل الرهان ليس مراهنات التقليدية، وإنما رهان مطابقة وسيط، وتوفير العقاب مع وسائل للمراهنة بين أنفسهم، الند للند. عند وضع رهان على تبادل كنت تراهن على مستخدم آخر الصرف، مع تبادل يتصرف تقريبا باعتبارها البورصة، مع المستخدمين شراء (دعم) وبيع (وضع) خلاف على نتائج معينة. تبادل المستخدمين جعل 'أوامر'، طلب خلاف انهم على استعداد لاتخاذ أو إعطاء والمبلغ الذي هم على استعداد للمخاطر.
كيف التبادل التبادل كسب المال؟
إذا كانت التبادلات ببساطة بمثابة وسيط بين مستخدمي الصرف، قد تتساءل كيف التبادلات جعل أموالهم. تقدم المراهنات التقليدية خلاف على الأحداث الرياضية والعملاء وضع الرهانات. إذا كانت هذه الرهانات الفائزين، يدفع المراهنات، إذا كانت هذه الرهانات خاسرة، يدعي المراهنات حصة العميل. بسيط.
ولكن إذا كان تبادل الرهان يعمل أساسا لتسهيل الرهانات بين مستخدمي الصرف، ما هو في ذلك بالنسبة لهم؟ والفرق الرئيسي بين مراهنات التقليدية وتبادل في هذا الصدد، هو أنه في حين أن مراهنات التقليدية يجعل المال أكثر تخسر، وتبادل يجعل المال كلما كنت الرهان. انهم لا يهمني من يفوز ومن يفقد الرهان، ولكن فقط أن الرهان حدث.
لماذا ا؟ لأن التبادلات تهمة عمولة على جميع الرهانات المتطابقة بين مستخدمي الصرف. هذا هو في الأساس سعر وجود الرهان الخاص بك المتطابقة مع مستخدم صرف آخر، وتكلفة الخدمة يوفر تبادل لمطابقة لك مع غيرها من العقاب.
يعتمد المبلغ والطريقة التي يتم بها تحميل العمولات على كل من الرهان الذي تستخدمه وكذلك السوق التي تتداول فيها. على سبيل المثال، تقدم بعض البورصات رسوم مخفضة على عمولات كرة القدم الأوروبية الكبرى في حين أن البعض الآخر يقدم عمولات مخفضة على أسواق المراهنة معينة مثل المعوقات الآسيوية كوسيلة لتشجيع المزيد من العملاء على التجارة في هذه الأسواق، في محاولة لتعزيز حيوية هذه الأسواق على تبادلها.
القدرة على الرهان ضد نتيجة.
هذه القدرة على "العودة" و "وضع" نتيجة يعطي المستخدمين تبادل القدرة على تأمين نتيجة مهما كان الحدث قد ينتهي. هذا هو ما يشار إليه المحاربون القدامى بأنه "يتداولون في السوق"، ويشاركون بشكل خاص في أحداث اللعب. العديد من مستخدمي الصرف لم يعد يعتبرون أنفسهم "المقامر" أو في الواقع "المراهنة"، ولكن بدلا من الذهاب اسم "تاجر".
تبادل التجار أساسا مواقف التجارة مثل الكثير من وسيط البورصة، وتقييم السوق كما الحدث هو العيش في اللعب. سوف ننظر إلى أمثلة من التداول في السوق بتفصيل دقيق في وقت لاحق في دليلنا، ولكن في الوقت الراهن فإنه من المهم ببساطة للاعتراف الطبيعة الديناميكية للتبادل الرهان وأنه في حين أن المراهنات التقليدية تقدم الآن في اللعب الرهبة وكذلك "النقدية خارج" الميزات ، انها على التبادلات أن التجار الحقيقيين يمارسون الحرفية والعثور على أكبر قدر من المرونة والقيمة.
مصلحة أكبر في الرهان النشاط.
وعلاوة على ذلك، عندما تراهن على المراهنات التقليدية، فإنها تريد أن تخسر. وبصفتها ميسرا، فإن تبادل الرهان غير متحيز، ولا يهتمون بمن يفوز.
بدلا من كسب المال من الرهان الخاص بك خاسرة، والرهان التبادلات جعل أموالهم من مستوى النشاط الرهان على أنها تأخذ لجنة.
لا حدود الرهان. نظريا.
في حين تتفاوت حدود الرهان من المراهنات إلى المراهنات والسوق إلى السوق، من الناحية النظرية لا توجد حدود الرهان على التبادل. ونحن نقول من الناحية النظرية لأن المبلغ الذي يمكن الرهان هو 'محدودة' لسيولة سوق معينة. ما هي سيولة السوق؟
هذه عبارة سوف غالبا ما تسمع الرهان تبادل قدامى المحاربين استخدام. ماذا تعني؟ وهذا يعني ببساطة مبلغ المال الذي يجري تداوله بين مستخدمي الصرف في سوق الرهان معين.
في بورصة مثل بيتفير، يمكن للأسواق أن ترى التداول بالملايين من الجنيهات، ولا سيما في الأسواق الشعبية مثل الدوري الممتاز أو دوري أبطال أوروبا، وأحداث سباقات كبرى أو أحداث شعبية دوليا مثل نفل سوبر بول. ويقال إن هذه الأسواق لديها سيولة عالية.
وثمة قيد آخر هو بالطبع الاحتمالات التي يوفرها مستعملو التبادل الآخرون. في حين أن السوق قد يكون سيولة عالية، قد لا تكون قادرة على الرهان حجم قد ترغب في خلاف تريدها.
خلاف أفضل. مرة أخرى، من الناحية النظرية.
خلاف هي أيضا أفضل عادة من ما سوف تجد في مراهنات التقليدية. ولكن في حين أن هذا هو مطالبة شعبية من الرهان التبادلات، في الواقع يمكن أن يكون قليلا خداع.
أولا، كما ذكرنا للتو، تلعب السيولة دورا. بالتأكيد، يمكن للمراهنات العادية أن تقدم فقط خلاف 2.20 لتشيلسي للفوز في مباراة نهاية الأسبوع مع ليفربول وأفضل الاحتمالات المتاحة في بيتفير قد تكون خلاف 2.30، ولكن يمكنك أن تنخفض حجم الحصة التي تريدها في خلاف من 2.30؟ ومن المؤكد أنه من الممكن في سوق السيولة العالية مثل مباراة الدوري الممتاز، ولكن على البطولات أو الرياضة أكثر غموضا، حيث السيولة منخفضة، قد تكافح من أجل الحصول على حصة المطلوب.
ثانيا، والأهم من ذلك، يجب أن تؤخذ المطالبات من "احتمالات أفضل" أيضا في ضوء أسعار العمولة سوف تدفع. نعم، خلاف 2.30 من أجل تشيلسي للفوز هي بالتأكيد أفضل من خلاف المراهنات من 2.20، ولكن بمجرد أن تأخذ في الاعتبار اللجنة التي سوف تدفع للتبادل، والاحتمالات قد تتحول إلى أن تكون مشابهة جدا، وفي بعض الحالات، حتى أدنى شأنا .
هذا أمر حاسم أن نأخذ في الاعتبار. العديد من التبادلات تقدم معدلات مختلفة من العمولة، اعتمادا على الدوري، البطولة والسوق. على سبيل المثال، يقدم دفتر الكتب المدرسية عمولة 0٪ على أسواق كرة قدم مختارة، بينما تأخذ البورصات الأخرى ما بين 2٪ إلى 5٪ من جميع الرهانات الفائزة.
لماذا قد تفضل الكتاب التقليدي.
في حين أنه قد يبدو أن التبادل الرهان تقدم منتج متميز والخدمة بالمقارنة مع المراهنات التقليدية، وهناك مجالات حيث قد تفضل المعتدين عارضة في وقت لاحق.
أولا، تجدر الإشارة إلى أن شكل الصرف لا يسمح لنفس اتساع وانتظام الترقيات والعروض الرهان الحرة. إذا كنت تتمتع الاستفادة من العروض الترويجية عطلة نهاية الأسبوع الدوري الممتاز على سبيل المثال، ثم الرهان التبادلات قد لا يكون لك.
ثانيا، تجدر الإشارة إلى أنه في حين أن بعض التبادلات الرهان وفرت لقدرة المستخدمين على تقديم أو طلب الرهانات متعددة، فإنه من النادر أن تكون مطابقة هذه الرهانات متعددة. حتى إذا كنت حريصة على الرهان المتعدد في كرة القدم في عطلة نهاية الأسبوع، قد تفضل مراهنات التقليدية مثل وليام هيل.
وأخيرا، في حين أن الطبيعة الديناميكية والشفافة لتبادل الرهان مثيرة لبعض، لغيرهم من العقاب هو مربكة ومتطورة للغاية. مرة أخرى، إذا كنت سعيدا وجود بونت عارضة في عطلة نهاية الأسبوع، ثم مراهنات التقليدية وربما أكثر ترضيك.
ومن الصحيح القول أن في اللعب الرهان ولدت على التبادلات الرهان. قبل تقديم بيتفير الأسواق في اللعب على أحداث مثل سباق الخيل والتنس وبطبيعة الحال، وكرة القدم، يمكن للمراهقين الرهان فقط قبل الحدث، وكانت مقفلة في مرة واحدة بدأ الحدث. إذا كان هدف مبكرا وسجل أو لاعب رئيسي سقط جرحى، لم يكن هناك شيء يمكن للمرتكب القيام به للحد من مسؤوليتهم. شهد ارتفاع التبادلات ارتفاع شعبية المراهنة في اللعب، مع كل مراهنات التقليدية تقريبا تقدم الآن ميزة الرهان الحية.
كما ذكر سابقا، والطبيعة الديناميكية للتبادل الرهان يسمح العقاب مرونة أكبر. ذهب طويل هي الأيام حيث يمكنك فقط عودة نتيجة معينة. مع التبادل الرهان، والمرؤوسين لديها الآن القدرة على "لاي" النتائج أيضا، ووضع أساسا في المعاقبة دور المراهنات، مع تبادل يعمل كمسهل بين مستخدمي الصرف.
وقد أدى ذلك إلى سلالة جديدة من العقاب، التاجر، الذي يركز فقط على الأسواق التجارية إما قبل المباراة أو في اللعب، كما أن البورصة سوف البورصة. ونحن سوف نلقي نظرة فاحصة على كيفية تأمين التجار في الأرباح في وقت لاحق في دليلنا.
من المهم أن نلاحظ أنه في حين أن التبادل الرهان توفر اتساع مماثل للأسواق للمراهنات التقليدية، والقدرة على اللعب في هذه الأسواق غالبا ما تقتصر على السيولة المتاحة. هذا لا ينبغي أن يكون مصدر قلق ولكن إذا كنت تبحث في المقام الأول للمراهنة على مباريات كرة القدم الكبرى مثل الدوري الممتاز أو دوري أبطال أوروبا، مع السيولة من هذه الأسواق عادة من بين أعلى المتاحة.
إذا كنت عارضة عابرة تتطلع إلى الرهان على بطولات الدوري أكثر غموضا والرياضة، قد تجد اللعب على تبادل لتكون تجربة محبطة وتستغرق وقتا طويلا. غالبا ما تكون البطولات والبطولات الغامضة ذات سيولة منخفضة وفي حين أن سيولة مثل هذه الأحداث تتحسن عادة مع اقتراب وقت بدء الحدث، فإن الحاجة إلى الانتظار ومشاهدة أي رهانات لا مثيل لها يمكن أن تشعر بعيدة عن المكافأة.
4. كيفية العثور على الرهانات القيمة على تبادل الرهان.
سواء كنت تحاول تحديد قيمة في مراهنات التقليدية أو على تبادل الرهان، وتطبيق نفس المبادئ. يتم العثور على قيمة الرهان كلما كنت تعتقد احتمال حدوث نتيجة أكبر من احتمال أن تلك النتيجة التي تحدث تعكسها خلاف الرهان معين. على سبيل المثال، احتمالات 2.0 (حتى المال) تعكس فرصة 50٪ من تلك النتيجة التي تحدث. إذا كنت تعتقد أن احتمال هذه النتيجة هو 60٪، ثم احتمالات 2.0 على العرض تمثل فرصة قيمة. يمكنك قراءة المزيد عن قيمة الرهان هنا في أكاديمية بيتينجكسيرت. إذا كنت غير مألوفة مع مفهوم الرهان القيمة، ونحن نوصي بشدة قراءتها قبل المغامرة في عالم الرهان التبادلات.
بعض المتقاعدين سوف يجادلون شركة لا، على الأقل بمعنى أنهم يعتقدون أن قيمة لا يمكن العثور عليها بسهولة في تبادل أكثر مما هو عليه مع مراهنات التقليدية. سيجادل هؤلاء الساخرون أنه في حين أن الطريقة التي يمكن للمستخدم تبادل تحديد قيمة قد تختلف عن تلك التي من مستخدم مراهنات التقليدية أي في اللعب التداول بدلا من التركيز على الرهان قبل المباراة، وفرص تحديد القيمة في الواقع هي إلى حد كبير نفسه.
وبهذا المعنى، يقال إن الأسواق في البورصة "فعالة". وبعبارة أخرى، فإن احتمالات العرض هي عادة انعكاس دقيق جدا لاحتمال حدوث كل نتيجة.
لأن الاحتمالات المعروضة على التبادل يتم تحديدها من قبل الآلاف إن لم يكن عشرات الآلاف من المستخدمين، ولكل منهم رأيهم الخاص، ووضع وقبول الرهانات من المستخدمين الآخرين، في حين أن المراهنات سوف تحدد إلى حد كبير الاحتمالات على أساس الذين يعتقدون سيفوز كرة القدم معينة مباراة على سبيل المثال، وتعديل أسعارها وفقا لالرهان قبلت.
على هذا النحو يقال إن احتمالات التبادل، وخاصة في سوق سيولة عالية الناضجة مع الآلاف من الرهانات مطابقة (وكذلك مدخلات عدد من التجار الأكثر حداثة) مثل مباراة الدوري الممتاز تعكس أكثر دقة صحيح احتمال كل نتيجة. وبهذه الطريقة يقال أن هذه الأسواق أكثر كفاءة وأكثر صعوبة للتغلب على المدى الطويل، مع العديد من المراهنات الآن إبقاء عن كثب على تحركات خلاف على التبادلات الرهان شعبية مثل بيتفير و ماتشبوك. وببساطة، يقال إن التبادل في الآراء يقابله "توازن الرأي"، وبهذه الطريقة، خلق ما يعتبره البعض "سعرا مثاليا".
وفي حين أن مستخدمي الصرف الآخرين قد يوافقون على أن صياغة الصعاب قد تختلف عن تلك التي من مراهنات أكثر تقليدية، فإنها لن توافق على أن القيمة لا يمكن العثور عليها. ويؤكد هؤلاء التجار الدهاء أن أسواق الصرف، وخاصة أسواق اللعب، توفر فرصا كبيرة للراغبين في أداء واجباتهم المنزلية والتعلم من الخبرة المكتسبة.
في حين أن العديد من المعتدين قد تكون قادرة على التوصل إلى تقييم دقيق إلى حد ما لفرص توتنهام هزيمة غرب بروم في مباراة معينة من الدوري الممتاز، كم من العقاب يمكن أن تقيم حقا احتمال فوز توتنهام في المباراة إذا ارتفعوا 1-0 بعد 20 دقيقة من اللعب؟ في هذه الظروف، ما هي فرص السحب؟ ما هي فرص غرب بروم يعود للفوز؟ ما هي فرص أن تنتهي المباراة مع أكثر من 2.5 أهداف سجل؟
هذا هو المكان الذي يجادل العديد من التجار يمكن العثور على قيمة، لا سيما مع التركيز على أسواق معينة أو البطولات. من خلال الخبرة في تداول هذه الأسواق، هذه العقول الحادة ليس فقط لديهم شعور دقيق لكيفية المباراة قد تلعب بها، رأي مدروس على من سيحقق المقبل على سبيل المثال، ولكن بالمثل وربما الأهم من ذلك، من خلال سنوات من الخبرة لديهم شركة الشعور كيف سيكون رد فعل السوق. في كثير من الحالات، التجار يلعبون فقط الأسواق، "لعب الأسعار" كما كانت. يعرفون في وقت مبكر أن الهدف المبكر ل توتنهام سيشهد تباطؤا في السوق، مع تراجع احتمالات توتنهام بينما على الرغم من انخفاض هدف واحد، ولكن من غير المرجح أن يبدو، فرص بروم الغربية للفوز بالمباراة أكبر من الاحتمالات ثم على العرض تفكير. هذا هو جوهر التداول على التبادلات الرهان، وأنه حيث العديد من العقل الحادة والخبرة يمكن أن تجد فرص قيمة.
مفاتيح العثور على قيمة الرهان على التبادلات هي نفسها كما كانت دائما، ولكن مع ربما المزيد من الضغط على التخصص. إذا كنت ترغب في التداول بنجاح وثقة في الأسواق على الرهان التبادلات، فمن المهم أن تتخصص. ويركز العديد من التجار على بطولات و / أو أسواق معينة.
على سبيل المثال، سوف يعمل بعض التجار فقط على إجمالي أهداف الدوري الممتاز. هؤلاء التجار سوف تلعب فقط على مباريات الدوري الممتاز وتكون مهتمة فقط مع عدد من الأهداف سجل. مع سنوات من الخبرة يصبحون واثقين من أنهم يعرفون كيف السوق سوف تتفاعل مع هدف في أي مرحلة من مراحل المباراة وسعداء للجلوس وانتظار هذه الفرص لتقديم أنفسهم، في حين أن كل حين وضع استراتيجيات تجارية متطورة التي تسمح لهم لتعزيز مع الحد من مسؤوليتهم. سوف التجار الآخرين تلعب فقط على سباق الخيل الإنجليزية، في حين أن آخرين سوف تركز على 20/20 الكريكيت أو التنس وتا.
مرة أخرى، المفتاح لإيجاد قيمة على التبادل الرهان هو نفسه كما كان دائما. التركيز على البطولات والأسواق معينة، والتعلم والتكيف والتعلم مرة أخرى.
5. ما هو بيت مطابقة؟
لذلك دعونا نصل إلى المكسرات والمسامير. أولا، ما هو الرهان المتطابق؟ ببساطة، الرهان المتطابق هو عندما أنت ومستخدم آخر يوافق على شروط الرهان، سواء في خلاف وحصة. كل رهان على تبادل يتطلب كل من الداعم والطبقة. كما ناقشنا سابقا، هذا هو تماما مثل الرهان يمكنك جعل بين الأصدقاء أثناء مشاهدة مباراة لكرة القدم. كنت تعتقد أن المباراة سوف تنتهي أكثر من 2.5 الأهداف. صديقك يعتقد أنها ستنتهي تحت 2.5 أهداف سجل. أنت توافق على شروط، يتم الرهان.
كيف يعمل هذا على تبادل الرهان؟
هناك عدد من الطرق الرهان يمكن أن تكون مطابقة على تبادل. ولكن أولا، دعونا ننظر إلى نموذجية الرهان واجهة السوق الصرف.
أعلاه يمكننا أن نرى فوز وين دراو-وين لمباراة الدوري الممتاز القادمة بين توتنهام وتشيلسي. فما هي بالضبط ما ننظر إليه هنا؟
حسنا، النوافذ الزرقاء "الخلفية" هي أفضل الاحتمالات المتاحة حاليا من قبل المستخدمين لهذه النتيجة معينة، فضلا عن إجمالي حصة المتاحة. في هذا المثال يمكننا أن نرى أن أفضل الاحتمالات التي تقدم حاليا ل توتنهام للفوز هي 2.57 مع ما مجموعه و اليورو، 512 المتاحة للحصة. وبالمثل يمكننا أن نرى أفضل الاحتمالات المقدمة للفوز تشيلسي هي 2.92 مع اليورو و 91 المتاحة للحصة في هذا السعر، في حين أن أفضل الاحتمالات للتعادل هي 3.46 مع ما مجموعه و اليورو، 5،626 المتاحة للحصة. بالإضافة إلى ذلك يمكننا أن نرى أفضل الاحتمالات القادمة على العرض لكل منهما، 2.56 ل توتنهام، 2.90 تشيلسي و 3.44 للرسم.
تعرض النوافذ الحمراء "لاي" الاحتمالات التي يطلبها المستخدمون الآخرون. على سبيل المثال، يمكننا أن نرى أن هناك و اليورو؛ 186 قيمة من الرهانات يسأل حاليا عن احتمالات 2.66 ل توتنهام للفوز، واليورو؛ 229 يسأل حاليا عن خلاف 2.99 ل تشيلسي للفوز وأخيرا، و € 2،008 يسأل عن احتمالات 3.56 للرسم.
فما هو إذن الرهان المتطابق؟ حسنا هذا يعتمد على ما إذا كنت زرع أو دعم.
6. ما هو الرهان الخلفي وكيف يعمل؟
هناك طريقتان للعودة. أولا، يمكنك ببساطة قبول الاحتمالات التي يجري تقديمها بالفعل. في هذا المثال، إذا كنت ترغب في احتمالات 2.57 ل توتنهام للفوز، يمكنك إعادتها في ذلك السعر يصل إلى ما مجموعه و اليورو؛ 512. هذا هو تماما كما تفعل مع مراهنات نموذجية.
نحن هنا على استعداد لدعم توتنهام للفوز على خلاف من 2.57 مع حصة من اليورو و 50؛ بعد تأكيد حصتك، تمت مطابقة رهانك. إذا فاز توتنهام بالمباراة، فسوف تطالب باليورو؛ 78.50 من مستخدم الصرف المتعارض. إذا فشل توتنهام للفوز (تشيلسي الفوز أو المباراة هو التعادل) تفقد الخاص بك واليورو؛ حصة 50 تماما كما تفعل مع رهان قبل المباراة نموذجية مع مراهنات.
ولكن ماذا لو كنت ترغب في دعم توتنهام ولكن يفضل خلاف أعلى؟ يمكنك بعد ذلك طلب احتمالات تريدها، ونأمل المقامر آخر سعيد أن يأخذك على في تلك الصعاب. هذا هو أساسا ما الأحمر "لاي" النوافذ يتم عرض. في هذا المثال، هناك و اليورو؛ 186 يسأل عن احتمالات 2.66 ل توتنهام للفوز. يمكنك طلب نفس الاحتمالات، خلاف أطول أو خلاف أقصر. والامر متروك لكم وكيف كنت قد قيمت فرص توتنهام للفوز.
مرة واحدة كنت قد وضعت في طلبك، في المثال أعلاه، و & ورو؛ 50 حصة على خلاف 2.66، انها مسألة الانتظار في انتظار مستخدم آخر لتبادل 'وضع' تلك الاحتمالات، حيث أنها سوف تلعب أساسا دور مراهنات وتقدم لك تلك الصعاب. مرة واحدة مستخدم آخر على استعداد لوضع هذه الصعاب، تم مطابقة الرهان الخاص بك. يجب أن توتنهام الفوز، يمكنك الفوز في الرهان والمطالبة اليورو؛ 83 من المستخدم الخاص بك معارضة. إذا فشلوا في الفوز (إما الفوز تشيلسي أو المباراة هو التعادل)، فإن المستخدم المتعارض تأخذ حصتك، مرة أخرى تماما كما مراهنات نموذجية.
7. ما هو الرهان وضع وكيف يعمل؟
وبالمثل هناك طريقتان لوضع. أولا، يمكنك ببساطة وضع على الصعاب المطلوبة بالفعل. في هذا المثال، يمكننا أن نرى أن هناك و اليورو؛ 229 يسأل عن خلاف من 2.99 لفوز تشيلسي. إذا كنت تعتقد أن فرص تشيلسي في الفوز أقل من تلك التي تعكسها تلك الصعاب، يمكنك وضعهم، وهو يتصرف كاتب للمراقبين / ق تسعى تلك الصعاب. لنفترض أنك تريد وضع & اليورو؛ 50 في تلك الصعاب. يمكنك ببساطة النقر على نافذة 2.99، ثم أدخل حصة كنت على استعداد لوضع، هذه القضية واليورو؛ 50.
هنا يمكنك ان ترى كل من حصة كنت زرع والمسؤولية الخاصة بك. ماذا يعني هذا؟ وهذا يعني ببساطة أنه يجب أن تشيلسي الفوز، سوف تدفع واليورو؛ 99.50 لمعارضة المستخدمين. النقر على علامة تأكيد، كنت وضع الرهان ثم تم مطابقة. إذا فشل تشيلسي للفوز (توتنهام الفوز أو المباراة هو التعادل)، سوف يدعي المستخدمين المعارضين واليورو؛ 50، تماما كما مراهنات التقليدية.
بدلا من ذلك يمكنك طلب خلاف أنك على استعداد لوضع. هذا هو أساسا ما تمثله النوافذ الخلفية الزرقاء. هذه هي الاحتمالات التي تبادل المستخدمين على استعداد لوضع. في هذا المثال يمكننا أن نرى أن هناك & اليورو؛ 5،626 على استعداد لوضع التعادل في 3.46. وهم ينتظرون مستخدمي الصرف الآخرين الذين هم على استعداد لدعم التعادل في تلك الصعاب. إذا كنت ترغب في وضع التعادل في تلك الصعاب يمكنك وضع في النظام وانتظر حتى تكون مطابقة. يمكنك أيضا وضع أمر لوضع خلاف التي هي أقصر من 3.46، كما يمكننا أن نرى هذا المثال، مع اليورو؛ 2،813 على استعداد لوضع التعادل في 3.44.
مرة أخرى، نختار احتمالات أننا على استعداد لتقديم وحصة نحن على استعداد لقبول. وبمجرد النقر فوق علامة تأكيد، تم تقديم الرهان لدينا. سنحتاج بعد ذلك إلى الانتظار لمعرفة ما إذا كان هذا العرض مطابقا. إذا كانت مطابقة، ثم إذا انتهت المباراة في التعادل، ونحن سوف تدفع ما مجموعه و اليورو؛ 122. ولكن إذا فاز توتنهام أو تشيلسي بالمباراة، فسوف ندعي حصة الخصم المتقلبة من ورو؛ 50، مرة أخرى، تماما كما أن مراهنات نموذجية.
يمكنك معرفة المزيد عن التفاصيل المعنية في كل من دعم ووضع رهان في كل من دفتر الحسابات وبيتفير.
8. ما هي رسوم الهيئة؟
كما نوقش سابقا في دليلنا، التبادلات الرهان جعل أموالهم من خلال فرض "لجنة" على الرهانات المتطابقة. في حين المراهنات التقليدية كسب المال أكثر تخسر والتبادلات كسب المال كلما كنت الرهان أو التجارة.
وتختلف طريقة عمل اللجان من التبادل إلى الصرف ومن السوق إلى السوق.
ما هي رسوم لجنة بيتفير؟
بيتفير يتقاضى عمولة على صافي المكاسب الخاصة بك على سوق الرهان معين. إذا قمت بإجراء خسارة في تلك السوق، لا يتم فرض عمولة. كيف حساب بيتفير عمولة سوف تدفع؟ يفعلون ذلك عن طريق ضرب المكاسب الصافية الخاصة بك عن طريق ما يشار إليها باسم "سعر قاعدة السوق" ناقص الخاص بك "معدل الخصم". وكلما رهان مع بيتفير، والمزيد من النقاط بيتفير سوف تكسب وارتفاع معدل الخصم الخاص بك سيكون.
لذلك لنفترض أن سعر قاعدة السوق هو 5٪ ومعدل الخصم هو 20٪. كم عمولة سوف تدفع على صافي المكاسب الخاصة بك و جنيه؛ 500؟ ويحسب مثل هذا:
العمولة = صافي المكاسب x معدل قاعدة السوق x (100٪ -Discount ريت)
من المهم ملاحظة أن الطريقة التي يمكن أن تتراكم فيها نقاط بيتفير تختلف من ولاية قضائية إلى ولاية قضائية. وبالمثل، كن على علم بأن نقاط بيتفير الخاص بك سوف تقلل بنسبة مئوية كل أسبوع. وهذا ما يعرف باسم الاضمحلال الأسبوعي. ستظل نقاط بيتفير ثابتة عند الاستمرار في الرهان أو التداول في نفس المستوى الأسبوعي في الأسبوع.
ما هي رسوم بيتفير بريميوم؟
في عام 2008 قدم بيتفير تدبيرا مثيرا للجدل يعرف باسم "رسوم بريميوم". وقد تم فرضه وفرضه على المراهنين والتجار الذين اعتبرت بيتفير أنها لا تدفع عمولة "عادلة" فيما يتعلق بحجم مكاسبهم. وكان هذا موضوعا مستمرا من الخداع وخاصة بين أولئك الذين أقاموا مهنة طويلة وناجحة تجار بتفير. وتدعي شركة بيتفير أن الرسوم المميزة تنطبق فقط على نسبة مئوية من مستخدميها، مع استثناء نسبة عالية من الفائزين على المدى الطويل.
كيف ستؤثر رسوم بريميير الخاصة ب بيتفير؟ سوف تتأثر إذا كان حسابك في الربح، إجمالي الرسوم التي تم إنشاؤها هي أقل من 20٪ من إجمالي المكاسب وكنت قد الرهان في أكثر من 250 سوقا منذ فتح حسابك. وتجدر الإشارة أيضا إلى أن أي فوز يشكل ما لا يقل عن 50٪ من مكاسبك العامة سوف يعفى من الرسوم وأن كل عميل سيحصل على و £ 1000 "بدل" مقابل الرسوم المميزة.
إذا كنت تستوفي المعايير المذكورة أعلاه، فإن بيتفير كل أسبوع سوف يتقاضى عليك أيهما أقل من الفرق بين 20٪ من أرباح الأسبوع السابق وإجمالي الرسوم المتولدة خلال ذلك الأسبوع أو الفرق بين 20٪ من إجمالي الأرباح ومجموع الرسوم المتولدة منذ فتح حساب بيتفير الخاص بك.
اذن ما معنى كل ذلك؟ لننظر في مثال. دعنا نقول أنه منذ فتح حساب بيتفير الخاص بك كنت قد حققت و الجنيه؛ 5،000 في الأرباح والرهان أو تداولها في 600 الأسواق. أولا، عمل لطيف. ثانيا، كنت قد دفعت و £؛ 450 في رسوم العمولة. لنفترض أن هذا الأسبوع قمت بإدراجه و الجنيه؛ 500 في الأرباح و دفع و الجنيه؛ 80 في رسوم العمولة. سيتم احتساب الرسوم المميزة كالتالي:
قسط الرسوم = (الأرباح الإجمالية لهذا الأسبوع × 20٪) - رسوم هذا الأسبوع.
وتجدر الإشارة إلى أنه إذا كنت ناجحا بشكل خاص بيتفير بيتور أو التاجر، وسوف تكون تخضع أعلى قسط المسؤول. If you are in profit of at least £250,000 since opening your account, commission charges are less than 40% of gross profits and you have bet in more than 1,000 markets, the higher rates will apply. If your total commission charges are greater than 10% of profits, you will pay a 40% Premium Charge. If your total commission charges are between 5% and 10%, you will pay a 50% Premium Charge. If your total commission charges are less than 5%, you will pay the maximum 60% Premium Charge. Betfair claim that these rates apply to only a small fraction 0.1% of all Betfair bettors and traders.
It's safe to say that while Betfair's Premium Charge only applies to the very elite level of Betfair customers, its introduction has been a public relations disaster, with many rightly recognising its introduction as a money grab as Betfair transforms from the revolutionary product it once was, to a financial institution like any other, determined to squeeze as much profit out of its product and customers as possible.
What Are Matchbook Commission Charges?
How do other exchanges charge commissions? In comparison to Betfair, Matchbook charges only 1% commission on each bet placed (This rate is now 1.15% in both the UK and Ireland). If you win your bet, the commission is charged on your profit. If you lose your bet, the commission is charged on the lesser of either your bet stake or the potential profit of the bet.
Let's say you backed Manchester United to win a Premier Legaue match, £100 at odds of 2.50. If Manchester United win the bet, you will pay 1% on your winnings, which in this case would be 1% of £150, a total of £1.50.
But what if you lose your bet? In this example you would pay 1% of £100 as your stake of £100 is the lesser of your stake and your potential profit of £150. So if Manchester United failed to get the victory, you would pay £1 in commission. If however you stake was £200, your commission of 1% would be charged on your potential winnings of £150, a total of £1.50.
What Are Betdaq Commission Charges?
Betdaq charges commissions on all winning bets. However the charge structure depends upon how your bet was matched. For all winnings bets that were the result of offers you made on the Betdaq exchange, you will be charged 2%. For all winning bets that were the result of you matching another offer, you will be charged the regular commission rate of 5%. This commission structure is an attempt by Betdaq to encourage customers to initiate betting activity.
So let's say you request odds of 3.00 for Tottenham to win a Premier League match. Once your offer is matched, you will pay 2% on your winnings should Tottenham win the match. If however you chose to take the odds of 2.98 that were already on offer from another Betdaq customer, should Tottenham win you will pay the regular commission rate of 5%.
What Are Smarkets Commission Charges?
Smarkets meanwhile charge a flat 2% commission rate on net marketing winnings. They also claim that this charge will never be increased.
9. Betting Exchange Commission Calculator.
Not sure the true value of the odds being offered to you on an exchange? Not a problem. Simply use the bettingexpert Commission Calculator to assess the true value of betting exchange odds. انها سهلة الاستخدام. Just enter the stake you want to bet, the odds you are being offered and the commission rate for the market you are betting in, lastly your discount rate if it applies to your chosen betting exchange.
Click the Calculate button and the bettingexpert Commission Calculator will tell you the true value of the odds being offered to you and your net profit if you take those odds.
10. What Is Betfair Cash Out?
With the concept of trading in-play a difficult one for many novice betting exchange users to grasp, Betfair have streamlined the trading process with the introduction of Cash Out.
So what is Betfair Cash Out? The Cash Out feature is available on select Betfair exchange markets as well as Betfair Sportsbook and is designed to help casual punters execute trades in-play with minimal calculation required. As Betfair say, they do the math for you, giving you the chance to trade out of your current in-play bet and take a profit or minimise your loss based on both your original bet stake, the odds of that bet and the current in-play odds. In essence Cash Out simulates the trading process and provides you the opportunity to execute trades at the click of a button.
Betfair Cash Out is not available on every market. To discover which markets Cash Out is available on, simply look for the Cash Out symbol.
11. Which Betting Exchange Is Right For You?
Betfair are the original, the largest and some would argue the best betting exchange operating today. Having launched the exchange in 2000, Betfair began the betting exchange revolution, offering punters the ability to both back and lay a result, not to mention the popularisation of live in-play betting. While Betfair has its critics, namely those who oppose the Premium Charge placed on successful traders, it is still highly regarded within the betting industry, among industry pundits and punters alike.
Markets : Betfair offers customers a deep menu of markets, easily the deepest menu available in comparison to competing betting exchanges. If you're looking to bet and trade on football and horse racing, you'll be especially pleased with what Betfair has to offer.
Odds : Near 100% odds on most high liquidity markets. If you're looking to bet and trade on popular football leagues or UK horse racing, you'll find great odds available at Betfair. It's important however to take into account the commission you will pay on each market. .
Liquidity : Great liquidity on high profile football leagues such as the Premier League and Champions League as well as daily UK horse racing.
Commissions : Complex commission structure involving both a Discount Rate to encourage active betting and trading as well as Premium Charges varying from 20% to 60% for highly profitable Betfair customers. Most punters and traders will only need to deal with Betfairs base commission rate. This is typical 5% on markets where you are showing a profit. .
Matchbook are an emerging giant in the betting exchange industry, challenging both Betfair and Betdaq. Matchbook has a great reputation among punters and traders, providing regular low commission markets as well as better liquidity on US sports betting markets, an area where both Betfair and Betdaq have struggled throughout the years. If you're looking for a betting exchange that provides markets for popular leagues and tournaments at low commissions with great liquidity, then you should certainly add Matchbook to your betting exchange portfolio.
Markets : Matchbook of a limited but expanding menu of markets. If you're keen on the major leagues of European football, then Matchbook as what you're looking for. If you're interested in trading and betting on major US sports leagues and tournaments such as the NFL and NBA, then you'll be well satisfied with what Matchbook has to offer. If you're looking to bet on horse racing, unfortunately you cannot bet or trade horse racing at Matchbook.
Odds : Matchbook offer near 100% odds on most high liquidity markets such as major European football leagues as well popular US sports like the NFL and the NBA. No matter what odds you are offered, be sure to take into account the amount of commission you will pay on that particular market, bet or trade.
Liquidity : Great liquidity on high profile football leagues such as the Premier League and Champions League as well as major US sports such as the NFL and NBA.
Commissions : Commissions charged on all matched bets at 1% (1.15% for UK and Irish customers). Matchbook also offer regular low commission offers on popular markets such as the Champions League and other high profile European football tournaments and leagues.
Since launching in 2000, Betdaq have been a persistent player in the betting exchange industry. While Betdaq hasn't developed the profile of other betting exchanges such as Betfair and Matchbook, Betdaq still provides both punters and traders with the opportunity to trade markets particularly major European football leagues and UK horse racing.
Markets : Betdaq offers customers a broad range of markets to bet on. If you're interested in betting or trading on popular European football leagues and tournaments, Betdaq offers markets on each. Likewise for UK horse racing, Betdaq provides punters and traders with a daily menu of racing markets.
Odds : Near 100% odds on most high liquidity markets, though not the best in the betting exchange industry.
Liquidity : While Betdaq's liquidity is inferior to that offered by Betfair and Matchbook, the liquidity at Betdaq is improving. Even with limited liquidity on offer, Betdaq can provide punters and traders with an additional outlet to take odds on and trade through.
Commissions : Commissions charged at 2% on all matched offers with the normal rate of 5% charged on all accepted offers.
Smarkets is an emerging player in the betting exchange industry. While betting exchanges such as Betfair and Matchbook have developed a high profile among both punters and traders, Smarkets is well worth your consideration, providing customers with an additional outlet to both bet and trade through. Launching in 2008 Smarkets was created by a team of financial professionals and software developers looking to take their knowledge of financial markets and adapt it to the world of sports betting and trading, .
Markets : Smarkets currently offer a limited menu of betting markets, but the good news is that their range of available markets is expanding. You can currently bet and trade on major football leagues and tournaments, horse racing as well tennis, basketball and much more.
Odds : Near 100% odds on most high liquidity markets.
Liquidity : While Smarkets offers inferior liquidity in comparison to both Betfair and Matchbook, their liquidity is improving. Regardless of their liquidity on offer, it's worth taking a look at Smarkets as it's well worth having as many outlets to trade and bet through..
Commissions : Commissions charged at 2% on all winnings. Not only that but Smarkets also make the claim that this rate will never rise.
12. How To Make Money Trading On Betting Exchanges.
While many punters use a betting exchange solely for pre-match betting, the overwhelming appeal for many users, especially professionals, is the ability to 'trade' markets. As the popularity of betting exchanges grew throughout the 2000's, so too did a new breed of bettor, the exchange trader.
Over the last decade in particular, the number of professional traders working markets on the exchanges has risen dramatically, with many leaving the world of pre-match betting, focusing only on trading.
Again, let's think of a betting exchange as being similar to the stock market. Betting exchange traders in this sense are much the same as traders on the stock exchange, buying and selling shares. In the case of the betting exchange, traders are buying and selling positions on a particular outcome, and the same principles remain true, buy low and sell high.
To put it simply, trading is backing (betting on) a result at a higher price and then laying (betting against) the same result at a lower price. This is known in the industry as 'green booking'.
An Example: Man City to win the League.
So let's look at an example. Above we can see the odds to win the Premier League. So how can we trade this market? As we noted earlier, we are trying to buy low and sell high on a position.
How do we do this?
Let's say we have looked at the upcoming fixture list and we believe that Man City are going to go on a winning streak. Such a winning streak will surely see their odds to win the Premier League drop. So we will back them now at the odds on offer now, 2.20 for €100.
So we have backed Man City to win the Premier League for €100 at odds of 2.20. Should Man City win the league, we will claim €120 profit.
But in this instance, we are not looking to bet, we are trading. In fact, we don't really care if Man City win the league or not. What we are simply hoping for is that at some stage during the remainder of the season, Man City's odds to win the league will fall below the odds that we took them at, 2.20. When this happens, we can then lay (bet against) Man City to win the league, and in so doing, ensure that whatever happens, whether Man City win the league or not, we will make a profit.
Let's say that for argument sake Man City do go on the winning streak we hoped for and in 8 week's time their odds to win the league are now 1.50. It's time to trade out of our position. We have bought high (backing Man City at odds of 2.20) and we will now sell low (laying Man City at 1.50). We do this by laying Man City to win the league at the odds of 1.50. In doing this we can either cover the liability of our original bet, €100 and in doing so essentially make our bet on Man City to win the league a free bet. If they win the league we make a profit, if they don't, no harm done, we break even.
On the other hand, we can balance our liability, ensuring that we make a reduced profit no matter what the result. If Man City wins the league, we profit. If they don't, we still profit. These are the fundamentals of trading on a betting exchange and it should be clear why so many former punters have over time become full time professional exchange traders.
Another Example: Liverpool vs Arsenal.
Let's look at another example. This time a Premier League match in-play. This is where many traders make their living.
Above we can see the pre-match odds for a Premier League match between Liverpool and Arsenal. So how will we trade this market? Again, we should only enter the market if we have a sense of how the match will play out, or how the market may react. Let's say we believe that Liverpool are likely to score an early goal. In this instance we will back Liverpool at the pre-match odds of 2.98 for €100.
Match time arrives and the waiting game begins. Let's assume then that Liverpool do score an early goal in the 10th minute. Such an event will see their odds to win the match drop dramatically. So again, it's time to trade out of our position by laying Liverpool to win the match. Again, we can cover our original liability completely to ensure that if Liverpool wins, we make a profit but if they fail to win, we break even. Or we can balance our liability, to ensure that no matter what happens in the remainder of the match, we make a profit. Again, the appeal of trading on an exchange should be self evident.
The flexibility of trading on betting exchanges.
Part of that appeal is the opportunity to get out of a position no matter what happens. Let's say in our example, that Liverpool does not score an early goal. And let's say for argument sake, Swansea scores the first goal of the match just after halftime. If this were to happen, Liverpool's odds to win the match would drift dramatically and as such we would be unable at that time, to trade out for a profit.
So what to do then? One option is to hold tight and hope the match turns in Liverpool's favour. On the other hand, we can look to limit our liability, or in other words, take a loss but limit the damage done.
Again, it depends upon how you believe the match will play out. Moreover, it should again be clear how the flexibility of trading on a betting exchange provides you with numerous ways to ensure a profit or at the very least, manage your losses when things go against you.
13. Common Errors New Traders Make.
As appealing as it may be, new users should trade on exchange markets with much caution. Some of the sharpest betting minds trade these markets, traders with years of experience, with a superior understanding of the ebb and flow of not only the contest but the markets themselves. If you are new to trading, it's easy to fall into errors of both judgement and strategy.
Failing To React.
One common error new traders make is failing to react when the market moves suddenly. If you anticipate an early goal for a particular team, and the opposing team score instead, match odds will shift suddenly against you and you need to react accordingly.
The same is true when things go in your favour. If the team you expect to score early does just that, you need to take your profit immediately and reassess your position afterward. This is why experienced traders succeed. They know the move to make in an instant and are rarely caught out when the market moves suddenly.
Having A Selective Memory.
Another common error, and one that both traders and bettors make is to have a selective memory. But with the hectic nature of in-play trading, this can be an even greater concern. In this way it's crucial to make notes as you go, recording what trade you made and price points.
لماذا ا؟ Because if you don't do this, you will only tend to remember those 'big moments'.
Sure, trading out of a losing position and taking a loss isn't enjoyable. But if you fail to make a note of it, you will likely only remember those times where you traded out for a loss only to have events then turn in your favour. You will recall that frustration readily but forget the numerous times that trading out of a losing position and limiting your liability saved you plenty. So make notes as you trade.
A third error new traders make is to maintain a 'gambling' mentality. It's important to remember, to always remember, you are trading a market, not gambling. When you have an opportunity to take a profit or to minimise a loss, you need to react. A reason too many novice traders fail is because they hold on to a position too long.
Even when things go in your favour, make the trade and take your profit. Don't stand still and hope that things will continue to go in your favour so you can claim a greater profit. هذا هو التداول. هذا ليس القمار.
Depending On Delayed 'Live' Broadcasts.
A fourth error, and an inexcusable one is to trade in-play markets using delayed vision or an online score tracker. Many bookmakers now offer 'live streaming' of numerous sporting events. While this is a great way to watch the sport you love, especially more obscure leagues and tournaments not covered by television networks, using this vision to trade in-play markets is a huge mistake.
لماذا ا؟ Because the vision is typically delayed by a number of seconds. If you're going to trade a market in-play, be sure you are viewing the event live or as near to live as is generally available to the vast majority of those also trading the market.
Setting Meaningless Profit Targets.
A final error novice traders make, and again one that many new to pre-match betting make, is to set arbitrary profit targets. This is a foolish trap to fall into. The only profit target that you should set is that ultimately, you want to make one.
But setting profit targets for a given trade, a given match, or even a given short term time span such as a day, week or even a month, is a recipe for disaster.
Again, take profits as they come. Sure, it would be great to make a profit each day of trading and yes, this is your goal. But setting profit targets will only place you under needless pressure, and when trading in-play, will only leave you prone to further errors of judgement.
14. How To Calculate A Trade On A Betting Exchange.
Being able to calculate a trade on Betfair or another betting exchange yourself is relatively unnecessary these days. Any number of trading apps, software and betting exchange trade calculators will calculate a trade for you, while betting exchanges themselves will tell you how much you stand to profit should your trade be matched.
It's still a good idea however to become familiar with the maths and know how to calculate a trade yourself. While technology may more often than not do the work for you, having an intuitive sense for trade dynamics and understanding how to calculate a trade will only assist you in your minute to minute, moment to moment decision making when trading on Betfair or another betting exchange such as Matchbook or Betdaq.
So let's look at a basic betting exchange trade then. Below we can see the pre-match 1X2 market for an upcoming Premier League match between Southampton and Chelsea.
So let's say that we believe the value in this match is with Southampton, both in terms of who will win and how the match will develop over the 90 minutes. So we will back Southampton to win at odds of 3.22 for €100.
Late in the 1st half Southampton score the opening goal of the match. Holding a 1-0 lead heading into the half-time break, Southampton are now at odds of 1.60 to win the match. Now we can trade on our pre-match position and lock in a sure profit or cover our pre-match liability.
15. How To Trade For A Sure Profit.
Let's say we want to trade on the betting exchange for a sure profit. This could mean balancing our profit equally across all 3 outcomes, so that no matter what the result of the match, we make the same profit. Or it could mean making a profit on one particular outcome, covering our pre-match liability.
Guaranteed Profit Trade Calculation Let's consider how we may balance our profit across all outcomes. At this stage we have a pre-match bet on Southampton to win at odds of 3.22 for €100 to make a profit of €222. We are in a favourable position now as Southampton hold a 1-0 lead and their odds on the betting exchange have been slashed to 1.60. We will now 'lay' Southampton to win (I.e bet against Southampton winning) at these odds.
How much should we lay Southampton at in order to secure an equal profit across all three outcomes?
The calculation is simply:
Lay Liability = Original expected return - (Original expected return / Current lay odds)
So in our example the calculation would be:
So if we want to trade for a sure and equal profit across all three possible outcomes, the liability on our Southampton lay bet should be €120.75 for a return of €322, a profit of €201.25.
So what can happen then? Let's consider the potential scenarios.
As we can see, once we have made this trade, no matter how the match ends, we have locked in a guaranteed sure profit of €96.19 after standard betting exchange commission has been deducted. We can then either sit back and take the profit or continue to trade on the match.
Locking in a sure profit regardless of the result is known in the business as 'greening up', or making a 'green book'. No matter what happens from that point on, if no further trades are made, you are certain of a given profit.
16. How To Calculate A Free Bet.
Let's say that instead of weighing our profit equally across all three outcomes, we want to trade for a sure profit on just one particular outcome, in doing so covering our pre-match liability, essentially giving us a free bet.
In our example, Southampton have a 1-0 lead. Let's suppose we want to leave all our profit on Southampton going on to win the match.
How much should we lay Southampton at in order to place all the profit on Southampton and cover our pre-match liability?
The calculation is simply:
Lay Liability = (Original bet stake * Current lay odds) – Original bet stake.
So in our example the calculation would be:
So in this case the liability on our Southampton lay bet should be €60 for a return of €160, a profit of €100, therefore covering our pre-match stake.
So what can happen then? Let's consider the potential scenarios.
So if Southampton wins, we make a profit of €153.90. If Chelsea wins or the match is a draw, we break even.
But what if we would rather place all our profit on Southampton not winning the match, so that all our profit is placed on a draw or a Chelsea victory? Firstly, you may be wondering why you would want to do this. After all Southampton lead 1-0 and are now at odds of 1.60, playing at home and now favourites to go on and win the match. Well, you may wish to oppose this position simply because, in your opinion, the odds for Southampton to win may now be far too short and the value is in opposing them.
How much should we lay Southampton at in order to place all the profit on Southampton not winning the match and cover our pre-match liability?
The calculation is simply:
Lay Liability = Original Potential Profit.
It can't be much more simpler than that. So in this case the liability on our Southampton lay bet should be €222 for a return of €592, a profit of €370, covering our pre-match stake.
So what can happen then? Let's consider the potential scenarios.
So in this example, we will break even if Southampton win the match, while if the match ends as either a draw or a Chelsea win, we will make a profit of €256.50 after 5% commission has been deducted.
17. Best Betting Exchange Trading Strategies.
Since trading on betting exchanges began with the launch of Betfair, there have been numerous trading strategies developed. Some have stood the test of time while others have come and gone. What are the best strategies for trading on Betfair or another betting exchange such as Matchbook or Betdaq? Here we consider the basics for successful trading on betting exchanges.
Firstly, what are the steps to making a successful trade?
Market Entry Point.
Your market entry point is essentially your initial bet. This may be pre-match or it may be in-play. It is essentially the moment where you feel, given your trading strategy, a value opportunity is available. You place your bet and wait for the market to develop and hopefully the opportunity to execute a profitable trade.
Market Exit Point.
Your exit point may be triggered by a number of different events. In a football match, it may be the next goal. In tennis it may be a break of serve. Or it could even be as simple as a certain price point, where the odds have moved enough to execute a successful trade. Whatever you exit point is, it is fundamental to successful trading to have a clear exit point in mind before entering the market.
Losses are a part of trading just as they are a part of traditional betting. They will happen. So risk management is crucial. A stop loss is a point where you determine it is best to get out of the market and out of your initial bet position, taking a slight loss as a result, rather than hanging on and hoping things will turn in your favour. A stop loss is basically the amount you are willing to risk in order to execute your exit point trade.
What is arbing?
Arbitrage betting is essentially what trading on betting exchanges is all about. You take a position on a certain outcome, say the winner of an upcoming football match. And when odds move in your favour, you trade out of your position so as to make a guaranteed profit regardless of the final result. For example, you back a club to win an upcoming football match. If that team scores first, their odds will drop significantly, setting up an arbitrage betting opportunity, where no matter how the match may conclude, you are guaranteed a sure profit.
What is back to lay trading?
Again, this is a core dynamic of successful trading on a betting exchange. Back an outcome at a given price, then lay the same outcome at a shorter price. Or alternatively, lay an outcome at a given price and back that outcome at a higher price. Doing so you are guaranteed to make a profit no matter how the event concludes.
18. What Is Scalping?
Scalping on Betfair or another betting exchange is essentially short-term trading, merely looking for the market to move only slightly in a favourable direction, typically backing and laying between the back and lay price in high liquidity betting exchange markets. As soon as the price moves in a favourable direction, a trade is made and, an albeit small, profit is locked in.
How to scalp.
Let's look at a basic example, an upcoming Premier League match between Tottenham and Swansea. In this example we will be 'scalping' the Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Experience suggests that there may well be a downward pressure on the Over 2.5 goals market as kickoff approaches. This sort of experience and knowledge is something that separates traders such as scalpers from other bettors. It is often the case that scalpers do not know much about the event they are trading on. What they do know and have a firm understanding of, is how markets operate, how markets move and what causes them to fluctuate regardless of the event.
With a sudden drop in odds, we can trade out of our original position (our initial bet) no matter what the result. This is the essence of scalping. It's about surfing price movements and slicing profits as they come, no matter how small. Continually doing this at every opportunity, can amount to making serious money.
Things to keep in mind when scalping.
One of the obvious dangers of scalping is the potential for odds to move against you. هذا سيحصل. Trading is just another form of betting. The aim is to make more winning trades than losing trades. Through experience and a little technical assistance, skilled scalpers can generate substantial profits.
Another important consideration is what is known as an 'exit strategy'. Risk management is incredibly important when scalping on Betfair or any betting exchange. As your gains are only slight, one losing trade can undermine much of your effort and eliminate your profits. When the market moves against you, be prepared to pull the pin on your position and get out while you can take a slight loss rather than hang on and hope for the best. You should not be interested in gambling. When scalping, you're trading. And like all forms of betting, trading requires discipline.
19. What Is Swing Trading?
Swing trading is essentially the same as scalping, except that with swing trading you are looking for larger price movements in the market. While scalping requires quick short-term low risk trades, the art of swing trading is in being able to anticipate larger price movements. This is of course easier said than done, and likewise, contains a greater element of risk.
How to swing trade.
There are a number of different ways to approach swing trading. But whichever way you choose to approach this strategy, what is key is in understanding what will cause a market to move suddenly and significantly in a given direction.
So what can cause a market to react suddenly? One thing is new information. For example an upcoming football match. The star striker for one of the competing teams has been dealing with an ongoing injury. He is still expected to play in the club's the match. A shrewd swing trader will do his research and essentially place a bet on the fact that he expects this player to miss the upcoming match. When the news is official that the player will miss, the odds on the opposition shorten significantly, and the opportunity to trade out of the initial back bet is available.
A sudden change in the event setting can also have a significant influence on prices. For example, a bright sunny morning, a perfect day for football at Old Trafford. Then twenty minutes before kickoff, a sudden down pour of rain. A frisky swing trader will move quickly to back the Under 2.5 goals market before the rest of those involved in the market have time to adjust to how the rain may influence the match. Once they do, and the market has significantly shortened for a low scoring match, the swing trader is now in a position to trade out and make a sizeable profit.
The key to success when swing trading on Betfair or another exchange, is firstly in understanding what will have a serious impact on the prices in particular betting markets, and secondly, being quick enough to act on them before the market catches up.
20. Best Betting Exchange Trading Software.
While trading on a betting exchange like Betfair without the assistance of betting exchange trading software, to be able to earn a genuine full time wage as a professional trader, you must employ the help of trading software. Why use betting exchange trading software? The answer is simple. نجاعة. Generating serious profits from scalping or swing trading requires intuitive software that will help trade in and out of positions with just a few clicks of your mouse. Attempting to do this without the assistance of trading software is folly and will most likely see you complete losing trades far more often than winning trades. But what software is the best for you?
Probably the most popular Betfair trading software available with recommendations from some of the most successful Betfair traders in the business. While it may appear complex to the uninitiated, after spending just a few days working with this software, you'll understand why it so highly regarded. Not only does it work very efficiently, with rapid execution of trades but more importantly, it is an incredibly stable platform.
Originally created to trade horse racing in the early days of Betfair, you can now trade virtually any Betfair market via Bet Angel. If you're keen to trade on Betfair football markets, you'll appreciate Bet Angel's Soccer Mystic feature, giving you the ability to fairly accurately predict price changes if certain events occurs, such as goals or even a lack of goals, depending on what suits your football trading strategy. If you're keen to trade on tennis, you'll enjoy Bet Angel's Tennis Trader feature, providing you with the ability to project odds movements for live tennis trading.
Bet Angel comes with a fantastic array of features and tools, many of which only the elite Betfair traders make use of. It's a great product and we thoroughly recommend it to anybody seriously considering a life as a professional Betfair trader. If you're curious, just check out Bet Angel's Youtube page, with dozens of videos posted to help you make the most of this superb software.
Bet Angel is available for at a subscription fee and comes in two packages, either Bet Angel Trader or Bet Angel Professional with both available on a 14 day free trial.
Another popular choice among Betfair traders is Geeks Toy. With rapid response time enabling you to make split second trades, back, lay and cancelling bets at the click of a mouse, Geeks Toy also has a very stable platform providing confidence in your Betfair trading.
First developed in 2009, Geeks Toy is now the recommended Betfair trading software for many successful professional exchange traders. It comes with a great range of features, including the capacity for multi market trading, the ability to set automated loss limits, cancel orders, estimated queue position, easy to follow market view with market ladders and odds movements, live streaming of Betfair racing as well as a range of other features to enable you to streamline your Betfair and exchange trading. Unfortunately however, unlike Bet Angel, Geeks Toy does not have MS Excel connectivity nor does it feature a soccer trading tool such as Bet Angel's Soccer Mystic.
If you're new to trading on a betting exchange, you'll appreciate Geeks Toy practise mode, giving you 10,000 in pretend currency in order for you to sharpen your trading skills on live betting exchange markets.
Geeks Toy was at one time free for all users, but is now available on a subscription basis and a 14 day free trial.
Advanced Cymatic Trader.
Advanced Cymatic Trader (or ACT) is another great option if you want to enhance your betting exchange trading and improve your profit and loss balance. With a great range of features allowing you to streamline your trading on Betfair or other betting exchange, Advanced Cymatic Trader will take your trading to a professional level.
With the Advanced Cymatic Trader you can trade just as you would on the Betfair interface but with a great range of automated features. You can trade via a traditional exchange interface performing manual trades if you choose or you can automatically place orders, execute trades in a given market as well as perform detailed market analysis helping you to find and maintain a range of profitable trading strategies or angles. Through the ladder interface you can monitor just how much money has been matched at individual price points as well as keep track of your place in the queue when looking for your bet to be matched.
Advanced Cymatic Trader is available on a subscription fee basis with a 14 day trial available for download.
21. Best Football Trading Strategies.
The art of trading on Betfair football markets has gone through much evolution over the years since trading began. But what are some of the popular football trading strategies that have stood the test of time?
1. Know Your Squads.
One way to place yourself in a favourable position when Betfair trading football matches, is to be very familiar with the squads of the clubs and leagues you are trading on. Understanding how a particular lineup or how the presence / absence of a particular player will influence a particular team's (or opposition's) playing style is a huge advantage in trading on betting exchanges. Sure, the missing mostly unrecognised right-back for a lowly performing Premier League club may not bring headlines, but understanding what his absence will mean as well as what his potential replacement brings to the table, will give you a huge advantage in trading betting exchange football markets.
2. Match Dynamics.
In most instances, the prices for in-play football markets are quite stubborn for the majority of the opening half, unless of course, there are goals scored. However in games where there is a stalemate, either 0-0 or 1-1, the market tends to move quite slowly. In fact in such matches, it's not until the 2nd half where the market and prices will begin to speed up. Understanding the pace of the market and how the match is being played is key to successful football trading on betting exchanges.
Betfair traders often refer to what is known as 'time decay'. What is time decay? Time decay is essentially the influence that time passing has on the betting market. For example, how will the odds differ from the price they are now, to what they will be in 15 minutes from now, if no further goals are scored during that time?
Likewise, understanding how each of the competing teams is likely to set up as the game progresses is vitally important. For example, a poor performing Premier League club fighting to stay up may be more likely to try and shut the game down in the 2nd half if holding a lead or even working for a draw. On the flip side, if they find themselves trailing, they may open things up and be looking to score. Understanding how a team will approach a given portion of the match is key to successful football trading on Betfair or any betting exchange.
3. Market Overreactions.
In week to week betting, we often see overreactions in how clubs are perceived in terms of performance following a particularly impressive victory or on the other hand, a particularly poor result. This happens often, especially early in the season when opinions are more fluid.
The same can be said of in-play football markets. When a goal is scored, the market can often overreact as it seeks to settle at the 'right price'. For example, let's say Southampton score the opening goal against Chelsea. After a few moments of hectic trading, the price for a Southampton victory settles at 1.80. But before it settled, odds were matched at anywhere between 1.75 and 1.85. Having a keen understanding of market dynamics and how goals should influence odds can help you successfully trade the moments following a major match event such as a goal being scored. Knowing not only what the price should be, but more importantly knowing what price the market is likely to settle at, can help you scalp traders who are in mad hurry to either get out of a bad trade or those who are urgently seeking to take advantage of a favourable position following the goal.
4. Lay The Draw.
If there is one Betfair football trading strategy that has stood the test of time, then it has to certainly be the 'lay the draw' strategy. If you have even slightest familiarity with Betfair football trading strategies, you will have no doubt heard about it, its strengths and of course, its weaknesses.
One of the reasons the Lay the Draw strategy has been so popular is that it assumes a goal will be scored in a given match. This is essentially how a sure profit is taken. You lay the Draw i. e you are betting that the game will not end as a draw. But what you are essentially doing is betting that at some stage in the match, a goal will be scored. And when that goal is scored, the odds for the Draw will drift and you will find yourself then being able to back the draw and lock in a guaranteed profit.
This all sounds good in theory. But there are many more football matches that do not see a goal scored than you may suspect. Depending upon the league, the rate of scoreless matches can be anywhere between 11% as it has been for Ligue Un the last ten years, or at the other end of the spectrum, just over 5% of matches in the Eredivisie over the same time span. What is key in laying the draw, is in selecting matches where you suspect a goal is mostly likely to be scored. A good guide for this is to review the odds for the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. If the odds are short for the Over, the bookmakers suspect that the match may see a number of goals scored.
One thing to keep in mind however, is that even if there is an early goal in a match, the odds for the draw may not move much at all, particularly if the team that scored the first goal of the match was a significant underdog heading into the content. If a club such as this score early, the market may still well assume that the heavily favoured club is likely to score an equaliser and likely to do it sooner rather than later. So you may have to hold on for some time before the drawn match odds drift enough to make the trade worthwhile.
Another approach is in recognising that goals late in matches are more frequent than many suspect. This can make laying the draw deep in the 2nd half of a scoreless match a great strategy. The odds for the draw at this point will be rather short and if a goal is scored, there will be a huge swing in the odds, giving you the opportunity to trade out for significant profit. It must be said however, that this strategy has a very low strike rate. With this in mind, discipline is crucial.
22. Best Horse Racing Trading Strategies.
One of the great things about trading horse racing on Betfair or another betting exchange, is the number of opportunities to trade throughout the day, with races starting near on every five minutes. So what are some of the popular Betfair horse racing strategies?
1. Scalping horse racing odds.
To many, scalping may appear a long drawn out strategy, that while providing numerous winning trades, can be devastating to your profit and loss when a losing trade is suffered. This is true and scalping does take a great deal of discipline and commitment. But if continually executed, a scalping strategy for horse racing markets can generate consistent and significant profits.
Scalping on horse racing involves continually backing a runner at a given price then laying that same runner at a lower price, typically one tick below the odds your backed it at. For example, a horse may be at odds of 2.50. You back the horse at these odds, then when the market shortens to 2.40, you lay the same runner so as to lock in a guaranteed profit.
Scalping is typically done between two price points, with the trader continually backing and laying as the price bounces back and forward.
Swing trading on horse racing Swing trading works on essentially the same principles as scalping except that you are looking to gain from far greater price movements. This can take great discipline and risk management is fundamental to your success as you cannot expect to see the same winning trade strike rate as you will scalping slight price movements.
One way to identify horses that may see large swings in prices is to research horses that have seen high profile racing tipsters and horse racing tips sites selecting them as one of their best bets of the day. Given their broad endorsement in the racing press and also by racing experts on social media, these horses are more likely to diminish in price as the day proceeds. Getting on them early before the 'buzz' about them circulates, can provide you with a great opportunity to trade for a certain profit on the race.
Swing trading involves great understanding of how horse racing markets operate, knowing what is likely to cause such prices movements and how the betting on other runners in the race will influence the price of the horse you are trading on. Much of what will make you a successful swing trader is not only a firm grasp of risk management and a disciplined mind, but simply experience trading horse racing markets. Coming to understand what will influence price movements is often bred from experience of trading within familiar markets.
2. Back to Lay horse racing strategy.
Probably one of the oldest and most popular trading strategies for horse racing on Betfair and other exchanges, is the Back to Lay strategy. How does the Back to Lay strategy work? It's fairly simple. The Back to Lay strategy simply involves backing a horse pre-race at certain odds and then laying that same horse at shorter odds at a given stage during the race. In this sense, you are looking for a horse that you think will get a great start or be in a commanding position at some stage during the race and as a result, will see their odds to win the race slashed, giving you the opportunity to trade out of your initial pre-race bet and make a guaranteed profit.
While the Back to Lay strategy has been a popular one, it is becoming more and more difficult to execute successfully. لماذا ا؟ Due to the popularity of in-race trading, the expectations for how a runner may run during the race is now often factored into the pre-race odds, meaning the value of any Back to Lay approach is significantly diminished.
Conversely there are also opportunities to execute a Lay to Back trade. What is a Lay to Back trade? It should be fairly obvious. A Lay to Back trade is where you lay a runner a given price and then look to back that runner at greater odds at some stage during the race, so as to guarantee a profit. Typically this involves laying a horse pre-race you expect to start the race at a slow pace. Once the race starts, if the horse does indeed start out slow, its odds will drift giving you the opportunity to back it at the greater odds than those at which you had originally layed.
While Back to Lay (and Lay to Back) value is becoming more and more difficult to identify, with diligent research on how particular horses and jockeys preter to race, a knowledge of UK race tracks and a keen understanding of horse racing betting markets on Betfair, you can still find opportunities to successfully execute Back to Lay trading.
23. Best Tennis Trading Strategies.
The pure amount of tennis played week in week out through the tennis season provides traders with a number of great opportunities to profit from tennis trading on Betfair and other betting exchanges. So what are some of the most popular betting exchange trading strategies for tennis?
1. Know Your Players.
Key to any successful tennis trading strategy is in knowing your players. This can be quite a daunting task when it comes to both men's and women's tennis. But diligent research can prove to be very profitable. Knowing how players respond in certain circumstances, how they deal with adversity, how they perform in different tournaments and on differing surfaces, as well as basic match stats such as serve and return percentages can place you in a very strong position to trade on tennis in-play betting markets.
Watching as much tennis as possible and keeping notes on every player in the top 200 in both men's and women's tennis is crucial to long term success as a tennis trader. It's hard work, but think of it this way – how many of those people trading in-play tennis markets have an understanding of how a player ranked 90th in the world will respond down two sets on clay in a warm up tournament for the French Open? Very few. Knowledge is power and when it comes to trading on tennis in-play, knowledge means profits.
2. Match Dynamics & Market Overreactions.
While knowing your players is crucial, just as crucial to successful tennis trading on Betfair or any betting exchange, is in understanding match dynamics and anticipating market overreactions. There are a number of moments where a market may overreact during a tennis match.
Often, particularly in 3 set contests, we can see the odds for the winner of the first set shorten dramatically. This can be especially true if the winner of the first set closes out the set in commanding style, for example winning the set by a score of 6-1. The market may overreact at this point and this can be especially true if the two players were more or less at even money in pre-match betting or in your own estimation are of equal ability.
The peculiar thing about tennis is that while a player may win the opening set easily, it still only means they are leading the match 1-0 heading into the second set. With a commanding opening set performance, the market may overreact and believe that pre-match odds were inaccurate and that the winner of the first set is a far superior player, or at the very least in superior form. Laying players at short odds following an impressive first set win can prove to be a profitable strategy as more often than not, their opposition will work their way back into the match through the second set, providing you with the opportunity to trade out of our lay bet for a guaranteed profit.
Another event that can cause a market to overreact is a break of serve. This is particularly true late in a set when the opportunities for the opponent to break back before the set concludes are fewer. Look to lay players who break serve late in a set as the market will often overreact and almost assume that the player will go on to hold serve and take the set. This can prove to be profitable especially in women's tennis where there are far more breaks of serve and the potential for a player to respond with a break of their own is greater. In general, the market will react more when a player drops their serve than when they hold it. Keep this in mind at all times while trading tennis on Betfair or any other betting exchange.
It can also be profitable to lay players as they seek to close out matches. The market will often overreact and feel the chances of the opposition are next to nothing. This can be particularly profitable when a player up say 2 sets to 0 is looking to close out a men's Grand Slam contest. Their odds can be significantly shorter than what the true probabilities of them winning the match are at that point. If their opposition can grind out a win in that set, then you will be able to trade out of your lay bet for a significant profit.
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Betfair Trading Strategies.
Ever since Betfair emerged on the scene in the early 2000s, punters have tried to devise strategies for trading sports markets in the same way as people trade stockmarkets or forex.
This involves laying at a certain price and then backing at a higher one, allowing you to make a profit whatever happens.
Many people have focused on instances where odds are likely to move in a certain direction, hoping to capitalise on such moves without needing to worry about who is going to win the event in question.
A great deal of attention has been paid to developing Betfair trading strategies around such ideas, with countless e-books, trading systems and forum discussions being devoted to them.
But are there any Betfair trading strategies that actually work? Can you make money from trading the markets, or is it the fastest way to the poor house?
Well, it is certainly not easy and if you are not careful, you can lose a lot of money trading. Keeping discipline is crucial and not over-trading or making impulse trades is the name of the game.
However, there are some good methods out there that if you stick to and stay disciplined, can make a profit.
Here we firstly list the best Betfair trading packages we have come across, then have a look at some of our own strategies.
Best Betfair Trading Strategies.
There are some good professional Betfair trading strategies out there that you want to try, which have tried and tested strategies, advice and guidance on trading sports markets on Betfair.
1. Betfair Scalper.
The art of “scalping” is all about taking small and consistent profits from small movements in markets. In the case of Betfair, this means taking just one of two ticks in odds, for example from 2.14 to 2.12.
Betfair Scalper is a training course that teaches you how to do this. It includes ten hours of training videos, including live examples of trades and the theory behind successful scalping. It is based on trading the horse racing markets in the 10-15 minutes before the race starts, when there is a large amount of liquidity and the odds can fluctuate quite significantly.
The beauty of Betfair Scalper is that you don’t need to necessarily predict which way the market will move – doing that is very difficult indeed – but rather just profit from the small movements in odds back and forth.
We ran a live trial using the methods outlined in Betfair Scalper and had nine successful days trading out of 10, with 9.2 points profit made. Once you get the hang of it, scalping can be quite fun and even a little addictive!
On the whole it is a very good guide to scalping and can be used to make small but consistent profits from the Betfair markets.
2. Goal Profits.
One of the most popular trading suites around and winner of multiple awards is Goal Profits , which comprises a group of football systems for trading on Betfair.
Included when you sign up are 28 football trading strategies, including a new “Matrix” set of specialist systems. A good number of the systems included are based around the lay the draw and correct score trading strategies.
There is also live in-play trading that you can follow in their chat room and see how the professionals do it.
In addition there is a lot of support including training videos, a forum and FAQs section on the website. You can certainly learn from other members and exchange ideas with them on the forum. It is a real and large community of Betfair traders.
Perhaps the best part of Goal Profits though is their “team statistics” software, that brings together statistics from leagues around the world to indicate where there is value in following certain trading systems for particular games. This is a very extensive database and gives you a potential edge over other traders online.
Goal Profits has been awarded the top Betfair Trading System six times in an online poll, so clearly this is a very popular package and one worth checking out if you are interested in trading football markets on Betfair.
3. Trade Shark Tennis.
Moving away from football and on to tennis, one of the best trading packages around is Trade Shark Tennis.
It includes a variety of trading strategies, together with training videos, an in-play chat room and a stats spreadsheet to aid your trading. You are given daily updates with guides for key matches for the day and tips for trading those matches.
There are some excellent systems included, which are based on sound stats and methods that should make you decent long-term returns.
The package also includes a free bonus of Tradeshark’s Cricket Trading Strategies, which are also well thought-out and can be used on Betfair’s very liquid trading markets.
The Trade Shark is very well respected and there are members of his who apparently make upwards of £500 per month from trading tennis matches. Well worth having a look if you are interested in trading Betfair’s tennis markets.
4. Spartan Trading Tips.
Spartan Trading Tips come from Patrick Ross of Tennis Trading League, something of a tennis betting guru.
What we think is interesting about the Spartan Trading Tips is they are based on a theory that has intrigued us for many years – cashing in on the big swings in odds you tend to get during tennis matches.
If you have ever spent time watching the odds of a tennis match on Betfair or one of the other exchanges, you will note the incredible fluctuations you see. This can be within individual games, as a player faces break points, or within sets as players go a break down and within matches as players win and lose sets.
So what if you could just identify matches that are likely to see such fluctuations? Or players who tend to have topsy-turvy matches (Andy Murray, looking at you!).
That is what Spartan Trading Tips does, looking to lay at a certain price and then back at a higher price, guaranteeing a profit.
The great thing about it is that you can just place the trades in Betfair before the match starts, then click “keep at in-play,” and you don’t have to monitor the match live, so you are free to get on with your day.
The trading tips have made just shy of 1,000 points profit since the service was started in 2018, which is excellent going.
So if you are looking to do some trading on Betfair that requires minimum effort on your part but makes very decent returns, then Spartan Trading Tips is the way forward.
Our Own Trading Strategies.
Above we have detailed the best professional Betfair trading strategies we have found online. Now we have a look at some of the strategies we use ourselves to trade the markets on Betfair.
1. Lay the Draw at Half-Time (Football)
Most people familiar with Betfair trading will have heard of the lay the draw strategy for football – we even have our own blog post here explaining it in more detail and the best strategies for trading it. However, not as many people will have heard of Lay the Draw at Half-Time. It is based on the same principles – laying the draw when the game is level and trading out when there is a goal. With this one though, you wait until half time before entering you lay of the draw (as long as the game is drawing).
The advantage of doing this is that often when you lay the draw at the start of the game, the odds don’t actually move very much when there is a goal. But by laying the draw at HT, you will ensure there is a big move in the draw price, for example, from around 2.4 to 4.5. Or if there is a late goal, it can be more like 2.4 to 10. That means you are making much more from each trade, although obviously there is a higher risk of it finishing a draw. You can of course hedge your risk by covering on the current score, although this will concurrently reduce your profits if there is a goal.
It is advisable to use games where there is not too strong a favourite, as in those sorts of games if the underdog breaks the deadlog, the draw price will probably actually decrease rather than increase. So more evenly-matched games are advisable.
Overall we have found this to be a sound strategy for trading on Betfair and with careful match selection where there is a high likelihood of another goal, it can be very profitable.
2. Lay the Server (Tennis)
One of the best trading strategies we have found for tennis is to lay the server at the start of a game. This works best in women’s tennis, where there are far more breaks of serve and on slower surfaces such as clay where there is a higher chance of serve being broken than on faster surfaces such as grass.
So let’s say a player is 2.0 to win the match at the start of a game and is about to serve. You would put in a lay bet at 2.0 and then wait until the end of the game to see what happens. If serve is broken, then the odds will jump out to 3.0 or even higher, meaning you can then cash out to guarantee yourself a profit. If the server wins the game, then the odds will move in somewhat, although not as much as if serve is broken. Either way you would trade out at the end of the game – it is just a one-game strategy.
It is advisable to pick players with a weak serve, as obviously they will be more vulnerable to dropping their serve. Some female players will lose their service games approximately half of the time (50%), but the amount you make when they lose their serve will be considerably more than when they win it, giving you a profitable trading strategy.
3. Trading around Easy/Tough Holes (golf)
Golf doesn’t tend to have quite as good liquidity as football and tennis but on the big tournaments like majors and World Golf Championships there is normally enough liquidity to make the following strategy work.
Basically it is based around knowing which are the scoring holes and which are the difficult holes on a golf course and trading players as they play these holes. So for example at Augusta, which most people know as it is used every year for the US Masters, has a relatively easy stretch of holes from the 13th to the 15th, which includes two par 5s and a fairly straightforward par 4. Even the 16th can be a birdie hole as well depending on where the pin is. So you would back a player when they are coming to this stretch (say as they are finishing up on the 12th), then hope they birdie at least one but hopefully more of these holes, which will cause their price to drop. Then you can then lay them (or cash out) giving yourself a guaranteed profit.
Conversely, the 10th to the 12th at Augusta are notoriously difficult holes and players often drop shots on these holes. So it can pay to lay a player as they enter this stretch and then back them again after they have played it, hopefully having dropped a couple of shots. You never know, they may plonk it in the water or hit it into someone’s garden like McIlroy did a few years ago!
As with all trading strategies, there are no guarantees that you will win every time with this, but using a plan like this that takes advantage of probabilities will almost certainly pay off over time.
There are some great Betfair trading strategies, both in terms of professional trading services you can sign up to and the standalone strategies we have outlined above.
The key to successful trading, whichever strategy you adopt, is to have a clear plan of action, stay disciplined and trade out at your pre-defined points, win or lose.
If you do that, then you will have a great chance of succeeding where 98% of people fail and actually win some money trading!
4 Simple Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
With the football back in full flow, improving your football trading strategies is important. At least, if you want to win anyway…
…Everyone knows that sinking feeling, when you’ve just opened a trade and the market goes ‘ suspended ‘ only to find out the other team just scored.
Don’t worry we’ve all been there at one point or another! You just need a better strategy.
Here’s a few football trading strategies to get you thinking. Using them in the right situations is the key to profiting…
Football trading strategies are often very simple (the best ones). To get the highest level of success it’s best to record all trades, and have a clearly laid out plan.
Keeping to it, as with all trading is the harder bit! It’s just natural for people to hold on to a bad position, nobody likes losing!
As you’ll have heard me say before; Knowledge dispels fear!
The trouble is, most people who fail at trading the football don’t put enough time into assessing the situation… they don’t have enough knowledge. If you haven’t a clue where to start this post will get you off down the right track.
Doing plenty of homework on each game prior will also massively increase confidence and success in any of the football trading strategies mentioned….
When Team Sheets Are Released – Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
When team sheets and various information is released there is opportunity. Just think about that a second.
That’s also why it’s not always possible to have too many ‘fixed’ football trading strategies. When I say fixed I mean as clear-cut as the same thing every time. Information and situations dictate the market, as they change we will need to change with them.
One thing is for certain though; when there is change there is opportunity. Even those with the best football trading strategies know this! Just ask the pro football traders over at pre-match trading.
Sometimes a lack of information can be just as telling as something happening, the clip below should make thing a bit clearer.
Be sure to watch it to the end, its only a couple of minutes…
Time Acceleration – Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
The natural progression of price during a football match looks something like this;
It’s often best to employ different football trading strategies at different points. For example you can see the price didn’t move at half time that much, but significant volume was still matched.
Obviously this graph is for a game where no goals were scored. The price will bounce around depending on what’s happening on the pitch. End to end play and missed shot’s are often represented by those little spikes that don’t confirm to the overall trend, but as with all football trading strategies it’s hard to predict every movement.
Taking a longer-term view can be helpful for this reason. Much like tennis trading , unbiased knowledge of the sport is a big advantage.
By having a good feel on how the game is going, this strategy can be effective. I should mention though, its best to be select with its application! If the pace of place suddenly changes it could be a good time to scale some of your position out at the very least.
We’ve all seen those games where the winning team just needs to hold on for another 30 minutes to obtain the points and result they need. Playing into the corners and taking their time with the ball isn’t uncommon.
These situations are where this approach is most useful. If you can find a game where its likely to be the case and the odds favour you (laying lower prices, backing higher prices) then it’s a double bonus. The last 30 minutes of any game can get a little more frantic, in the market and on pitch. Waiting for the right opportunity and knowing your teams means this can be a pretty safe play at times….
You’ll need to weigh up the teams and who’s playing, along with their motivation to win the match. Football trading strategies like this suit some more than others, it’s reliant on your level of player and team knowledge, unlike other football trading strategies.
On the Geeks Toy forums some time ago a guy called Wazoo posted this thread. It’s worth a read when you have time (quite a long thread), you’ll see a lot of his trading was in the second half…
It’s impossible to say for sure, although it’s likely this could have been one or all of the football trading strategies used.
Odds Compression After A Goal – Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
After suspension in any match the market goes haywire. Traders in a bad position exit, others scramble to open a good one.
There are many different reasons for this, although one of which is a stand out opportunity for me.
If you look at the three graphs below it’s not hard to see when the goal went in. Looking at the second graph in the centre I’ve added a couple of pointers.
After a goal the price dropped from 3.0 to 1.58. The graph doesn’t do the position justice as the price settled at 1.62. Looking at the graph it looks as though the price didn’t trade below 1.62 (mainly because of the volume matched after at them prices) although it did, and for a good minute or so (straight after goal).
Anyway, it’s not hard to see this produced a natural compression point in the market! One of those lovely points where, you can find an over-reaction.
More importantly, you get to open a trade with far more potential upside than down. Laying below 2.0 is always a good idea anyhow, but opening a lay bet at 1.58 or even 1.62 would give you the position to have a trade open for a whopping 17 minutes without the market moving all that much against you! Worst case, you would have to exit at 1.52 losing 6 ticks in the process.
On the flip side, if there was a counter-goal as there often is in football the price would have been back at 3.0 in no time at all (+100 ticks)
Make’s sense, right? This is what makes this method one of my favourite football trading strategies.
Obviously there is the risk of the current team that scored scoring again. After conceding a goal, most teams are on edge enough to stop the follow-up. Knowing your football and the situation that’s likely to unfold is an advantage. It’s a simple strategy but can be very effective.
It’s also a good idea to think about which team scored here. If the goal was scored by the team considered to be the outsiders, there’s every chance the price will hold that bit longer. If the favourites scored it was that bit more expected and so the situation is a little different. If the favourites scored first though, the price will be far lower, offering less financial liability for the risk of opening the trade.
Strike rate with this method is considerably lower than other football trading strategies, although in terms of risk v’s rewards it’s one of the best I know!
Laying The Draw – Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
Laying the draw is probably the oldest, and one of the most known Betfair football trading strategies. Many are already aware, but for those who are not I shall explain…
By laying the draw you are basically looking to open a position with the view of a goal being scored at some point. Once a goal is scored you trade out for a profit, or at least offset your position to reduce risk, leaving an increased payout on what you think will happen.
Seeing you rarely see a football game without a goal, it’s one of the most used football trading strategies around. There is a risk of over-trading though, so be select and consult statistics on previous performances where possible.
As with any trading strategy, the aim of the game is just to win more often than you lose! Not just trade every game.
There are two main things to bear in mind when laying the draw. The price at which you open a position, and the likelihood of a goal.
Checking the game in question for historical statistics is a good idea. Also checking the line-up for the game. If you have identified a match as a good opportunity for this strategy and they aren’t starting with their star striker, it’s probably best to hold off as long as you can (or until they come on) and get a better entry price.
Many games are still 0 – 0 at half time. This is the ideal time to open a position as there is extra value in the draw price to lay, it’ll have already shortened somewhat. It’s quite likely the teams will be feeling the pressure to score that bit more as well. Depending on the situation.
Some teams are also known for being a bit more ‘lifeless’ in the first half. And turning up the heat in the second.
As with any of the football trading strategies, careful selection is important. No two matches are identical. Many play this strategy a few times, see it works and then proceed to do it on every game in sight. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that’s the way to the poor house.
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Summary – Betfair Football Trading Strategies.
Trading football markets on Betfair is a little different to Horse Racing. In my experience its far easier to just aim for one edge in a match. Unlike the Horse Racing markets where you can place many more trades and act intuitively.
Keeping a spreadsheet to record trades and games is also a good place to start! It will help eradicate unnecessary trades. Think long-term. All football trading strategies will work better in specific types of situation. Some more than others. But if you have one strategy you can apply successfully on a regular basis the balance soon grows. The more regular profits are, the quicker it’ll happen.
Quality over quantity as they say!
It’s also important to make sure you’re trading something you actually have an interest in. I prefer trading the horses pre-race , it’s a sport I prefer to watch. And the markets feel that bit easier to profit from. However, football markets turn over huge sums of cash on a daily basis. Hundreds of thousands.
Having just one or two good trades a week can prove a lucrative, with the markets being so much larger it means stakes can be too! If you want proof of that you may want to check out this post , Paulo Rebelo’s stakes in the football markets are mind-blowing.
So as a quick recap, 3 tips for all the football trading strategies mentioned in this post:
Be Select – Football trading strategies are often quite unique to a particular situation. Applying the same football trading strategies again and again to different situations isn’t likely to produce regular results. Be select in application, it can be frustrating when you feel like you’ve missed out but it’s far better to find something that works and use it less. Alternatively you’ll use it more, profit less and drive yourself crazy in the process! Keep Records – Keeping some kind of record is always advisable. If nothing else it’ll stop the roller coaster of winning v’s losing in terms of emotion. It also makes it easier to see which of your football trading strategies are most effective. Specific Knowledge – Knowledge is power, in anything. But it makes a huge difference to the results of most football trading strategies. Knowing you’re players, teams and situations will change the likely outcomes of so many situations. If a team is desperate for a goal in the last few minutes of a match all sorts of crazy moves can occur… producing some great potential.
Never stop learning! The more Football trading strategies you have at your disposal the more profits you can make. There will be occasions where the opportunity changes and the strategy you was about to use will no longer be of use. These kind of situations can be frustrating to say the least, but if you have more ‘strings to your bow’ as we say here in the UK then other opportunities appear in the moment as previous ones cease to be of use.
Trading markets evolve over time which also makes it important to search for new edges as well as those time-less strategies that will always be there!
Find this post useful? Please feel free to leave a comment below….
9 أفكار حول & لدكو؛ 4 Simple Betfair Football Trading Strategies ”
Nice article although is should be named “4 Profitable Betfair football trading strategies if you know what you are doing!” 🙂
Taking what you said in this article, without some critical thinking and knowledge of the markets, will get you a loss in the long-term! Namely, the odds compression examples where the odd stays still for a long time, depends on a lot of factors (time of the goal, was it against the run of play?…etc) and it doesn’t always happen.
About trading in the second half, I would recommend caution as losses/profits will be amplified comparatively to the first half due to the time-factor: less time to be played means the goals are more decisive to the final outcome.
Finally, the Wazzo thread is pretty good, it explains things on a macro level without dwelling too much on the details, but it is value content on football trading.
بفضل & # 8230؛ Everyone should do some homework! Can’t do it all for them haha.
The compression examples are the key place anyone should be thinking about getting involved. Obviously knowledge of the game is important too, if a goal was against the grain of play for example it would indeed hold longer at a no-loss price.
The second half – the second half if faster moving as you say, which is the beauty of it in my opinion. Price is an important fact at which you get involved with this too, obviously laying at 10.0 is just insanity in such a situation even for a few ticks at liability is so high.
Wazzo thread is interesting for sure, like you say not a lot of detail but its always good to read between the lines on such instances!
Great post Caan. I’ve used one of these strategies in the past with a fair amount of success. Keen to get on and try the others now! thanks for taking time to share.
No problem, Steven. 🙂
شكرا كان. I also prefer pre horse race trading but see the logic in using your skills in other situations. Its good to read other traders ideas as it confirms that you are on the right track when they match yours. Keep em coming mate £££
Caan I love your writing and I think the old adage of “everybody’s got a book in them” definitely applies to you.
I’d love to see you in the future write a book. I think it could really come across well as you have a natural writing and teaching personality.
I’d also love to help you by proofreading your web articles for you and maybe even your book later on down the line.
I am an expert proofreader and I can correct small mistakes in your writing which will make your copy more precise whilst still maintaining your true “voice.”
Get in touch with me as I’d love to help you in your journey and keep up the excellent work.
I’ve used one of these strategies in the past with a fair amount of success. Keen to get on and try the others now! thanks for taking time to share.
Time Acceleration – Betfair Football.
شكر. The post is highly educative and an eye opener for a new bettor.
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Category: Trading strategies.
What are the best Tennis markets to trade?
There is no such thing as a perfect trade or one that is completely riskless. So the next best thing is to find the best place to be in a market adn when.
When you are looking to trade Tennis you are effectively selling volatility. Markets are generally priced efficiently before the start of a match, but trading is all about exploiting how a player goes from that point to closing out a match. That progression can …
Welcome to Winter.
First the good news, we are only eight weeks from Cheltenham!
I’ve always held the opinion that the start of the year is badly timed. The new year is seen as a time for optimism and for a fresh start. Unfortunately, the new year is plonked right in the middle of winter.
If you are trying to trade sports, especially Horse Racing, that’s probably not the best time to start, or is, depending on your outlook. Let’s look at …
Australian Open 2018.
This week sees the first major sporting event of 2018 and the opening grand slam of the tennis calendar as the Australian Open gets underway.
Live scores at the Aussie Open.
Some of you may remember, that last year for the first time Betfair where unable to provide the live scores via their API (which is where Bet Angel gets them from). Unfortunately, Betfair has confirmed they will not be providing them again this year. I’m not sure of the …
Trading the FA Cup.
It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.
If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.
Win a game in the second round …
Five top new years trading resolutions.
Some of these may surprise you, others not so much. But if you want to get off on the right foot here are my suggestions for you.
Even if you just go for a walk, start each day with some exercise. There is a proven link between exercise, wellbeing and brain function. It should be the first thing you do ahead of anything else, each day. Make the time to do it, there should be no excuses.
So there it goes, another year slips into the past. I hope you have a good evening whatever you choose to do on new years eve. I’ll talk about 2018 as we cross into that year. I have a few plans for next year.
First off, my many thanks go to all the people, including our customers, that have supported us over the year. Because of the unique way our team is made up, we throw as much …
Christmas racing markets.
It’s almost time to relax, but typically this can start and end sooner than you expect on racing markets.
The markets in the run up to Christmas day can be a bit barren. It actually works well , as it means you can most likely take the entire week off and not really miss anything. This year you missed a crash on Betfair! But that itself produce some awesome Betdaq markets. I didn’t have too many commitments this …
Imagine you are a caveman meandering through a landscape, you hear a rustle in the bush. “What’s that…?”
Your brain kicks into action and provokes a flight or fight response. It could be lunch, or it could kill you! Your primitive brain makes a really simple judgement and decides that the payoff here for ‘kill you’ is pretty bad, -100% in fact. The pay off for food is there as well, but it can’t offset the negative. So you walk …
Automation To Assist Your Manual Trading.
Many users of Bet Angel will have full strategies or systems which they have fully automated by using a combination of the options and conditions available within Guardians Advanced Automation to trigger their bets into the market.
However, using advanced automation does not mean you must trigger bets with it every time, instead if you prefer trading manually and having full control over when you open, close and green up your positions then there’s no reason why you can still …
Finding value in malevolent markets.
You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced. But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!
The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …
Predicting goals – Part one.
To get some context into this post read the goal ratings thread…
When you’re looking at a football match, goals are obviously of great importance. Every strategy you deploy on a football match is reliant to some extent on whether a goal is scored or not.
The first place to start when you trading in football is to work out if you think there will be a goal, obviously.
High quality matches between even teams, …
Why does a strategy fail the moment you use it?
You know the feeling, you work hard to research and establish a new idea or strategy. You put it to use and it works, so you raise your stakes and booooooooom, it instantly reverses and losses you a shed load of money. It can sometimes feel like the market has got it in for you or like somebody is watching you.
You don’t deploy a strategy to lose money.
When you set out to deploy a strategy you don’t expect …
Why we choke and how you can profit from it.
I’ve just finished reading a very good summary of the core reasons why we choke. The article is a nice clean summary and is worth a read.
Basically it comments on how information is stored in the brain and transferred from a semi autonomous region to a more thoughtful process. The semi autonomous region falls apart when it is forced to transfer back to the other part of brain. Your brain can be in the zone, then forced out of …
A day of racing you shouldn’t miss.
Tomorrow we have the finale to the flat turf season and a curtain raiser to the flat turf season. How can you have both? دعني أشرح.
First, we have ‘Champions day’ at Ascot and it promises to be a real feast of racing.
Champions day only came into being in 2018 so it’s relatively new in the scheme of things but it’s a weekend I wouldn’t miss for anything now. It’s the last shot at a …
I’m often told that I’m lucky. You are lucky that you can do this, you are lucky that you have that, it’s lucky that this happened and so on.
But the fact is, underlying all elements of luck are two important characteristics, belief and perseverance .
Some people are given a good start in life, some are not. I wasn’t given the best start in life, but certainly not the worse. I found myself as a teenager a bit …
How bookmakers make money.
Back when, ‘I was but lad’, I stumbled into the world of bookmakers.
I arrived there via the football pools and thought I’d apply similar techniques at the bookmakers. But I soon realised there were a few problems doing this.
The first problem I had was getting the bet on, I couldn’t really bet in the size I wanted without being limited. Secondly, I could only do plain old vanilla betting. If I tried something more complex I’d often …
Seasonality in Horse Racing.
Still, plenty of racing to look forward to and the champions meeting still to come followed by the restart of Cheltenham, but what happens as we move into the winter?
There are plenty of highlights around at this time and more as we head into the full on jumps season. For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December. و hellip؛
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc.
At least once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast. It’s the time of year that I turn my attention to a few overseas Racing markets.
On Friday, I traded the ‘evening’ racing at Moonee Valley in Australia and returned in the early hours of this morning to have a look at some of the other group racing …
I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend.
The Cambridgeshire is a very competitive large field handicap run at Newmarket each year. It’s focal point at this time of year and followed by the Cesarewitch. As with all big, competitive, quality races; fill rate will be at the top of my mind. I’m not expecting a gamble to explode out of nowhere, but you never know nowadays.
Who scores first?
I’m just watching the Man City vs West Ham match and West Ham have taken a ‘shock’ lead according to most sources, but how often does the away team score first?
Football is a generally low scoring contest, but not only that you can have a lot of shots and still not score. The chance of a goal from a statistical perspective is interesting because goals are ‘rare’. This lends itself to seeing away teams taking a ‘shock’ lead …
Most and least volatile racecourses to trade.
I did a tweet recently that stated a little trading fact, that Chelmsford City was the most volatile course. I had a fairly immediate retort, that stated it wasn’t a fact but was ‘just’ an opinion. It was actually a carefully researched fact.
I’ve collected data on volatility right from day one of my trading journey and have built up a massive database of data. One of the things I study is how volatile the market is.
St Leger meeting.
The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”
Come back on St Leger day.
There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk …
High probability Betfair trading strategies.
Sounds nice doesn’t it, winning positions regularly topping up your account? Please send your $37 to…….
With the start of the jumps season just around the corner, I’m going to be pursuing a new, automated, in-play strategy. I did all the hard work last year qualifying what I wanted to do and test the assumptions, which are often wrong. So now it’s time to put it into practice.
It will lose money and on a frequent basis and …
Little and often – On Greyhounds.
Greyhounds markets are another good example of little and often. The average Greyhound race only turns over £15k or so per race so it’s really not a very liquid market. Even then, the money arrives really late. but there are very large amounts of greyhound races.
I recently revisited the Greyhounds markets after a seven-year absence. If you want some background as to why, have a read of this blog post: –
Since revisiting the markets I’ve now …
Psychology in sport – Tennis.
I started writing a broad piece on Psychology but it got too big, so I’ve broken off chunks and will list them on the blog for your interest.
Psychology isn’t something that is limited to the minds of traders, it’s out there on the sports field and in the associated markets as well. I’ve observed all sorts of strange biases that just don’t have any place in a rational world, but feature heavily and persistently in the markets …
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.
There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …
Unbelievable Jeff – Trading comebacks in football.
I think it’s safe to say we all had fun watching some of the opening premier league fixtures last weekend.
While it would be nice to think the whole season will be packed full of action of this kind, with remarkable comebacks and sterling fightbacks, it’s unlikely.
Obviously, a notable match was the champions, Chelsea, losing at home to Burnley who struggled to muster any decent away form last year. I and a number of people picked up …
How to win the Premier League.
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic.
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
More Moore at Goodwood.
Goodwood should have been renamed Greywood at the start of the festival, such was the miserable weather that accompanied what should have been a glorious week on the Sussex downs. But it was notable for one particular day.
The weather had a huge impact on the meeting last week and produced a below par performance from me and from the markets. I’d imagine most attendees on course last week, spent most of their time hiding from the incessant rain and …
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…
You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.
I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …
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تواصل معنا على منصات وسائل الاعلام الاجتماعية التالية.
Trading Betfair for a Living: Complete Guide for 2017.
Becoming a professional Betfair trader is the ultimate dream for many, whether it be football trading, tennis, horses or something else entirely. It's certainly achievable - there are people doing it - but how do you go from frustrated gambler to trading Betfair for a living?
In this post I'll talk about expectations and motivation, what a sports trader does day to day, what you can look forward to as a full-time trader and how to actually get there.
What are your expectations?
I really hope that this doesn't come as a surprise to you, but. you will never be able to buy a few systems, quit your job and then start to pull money out of the betting exchanges the next morning. They are not magical ATMs and it is not possible to find systems which " unlock the secrets of Betfair for five minutes work each week ".
If you have searched for something like, " how to make money on Betfair fast " or the " easiest way to make money betting " you're going to need to change your mindset quite considerably before you can even think about sports trading for a living.
After all, the only thing you can do fast on Betfair is blow your bank!
If you are planning to rely on that bank to pay your way through life, you'd better make sure that your number one priority is to protect it.
Another thing. while it is possible to learn the fundamentals, you can only become an experienced trader by trading . Sounds obvious when it's put like that, but you would not believe the amount of people who start trading football and immediately expect to make money.
And how could that even be possible?
فكر في الأمر. Betfair is full of very clever and ruthless traders whose sole intention is to take your money. What makes anyone think that they are going to outsmart these other traders as soon as they start trading?
As Kevin Laverick found out - having played and managed football at a good level - sports knowledge doesn't get you very far; it's all about risk/reward, probabilities, discipline, patience and so on.
وبالتالي. from day one, make sure that your expectations are reasonable and realistic; becoming a professional sports trader is going to take time and hard work.
Find your motivation.
Ask yourself. why do you want to trade on Betfair for a living?
If it's because you want to impress your mates down the pub, you're going to struggle to remain motivated when the going gets tough. If you dream of laying on a desert island and logging into Betfair every now and again to top up your bank account, you're living in a fantasy world.
So why is it that you are reading this?
There are lots of emotions which drive our motivations; love and hate perhaps being the strongest. Why do you want to make money on Betfair? What is going to keep you focused and drive you forward?
وهنا بعض الأمثلة:
I love my family and I wish to spend more time with them I would love to achieve financial security for me and my family I would love the freedom of being able to live and work from almost anywhere.
I hate sitting in traffic on my way to the office I hate my job and I can't see a way to make it bearable I hate the fact that I'm not in control of my life.
What are your motivations?
Focus more on the positives than the negatives; your hopes and dreams rather than fears. Positive emotions are stronger and longer lasting. After all, you will love your family long after you've left the job you hate .
The more motivations you can find, the better. When trading seems difficult - or even impossible - you will refer back to your list, re-focus, clear your head and try again. Without strong motivation, you are far more likely to quit and that doesn't get you anywhere.
What does a sports trader do?
If you think that football traders sit down all day watching football, you're probably going to be disappointed. Apart from watching football socially, I can't remember the last time I watched a game while trading - it's just not necessary.
I do know of some traders who watch football matches and even a few who believe that they can " read a game " but the vast majority can't do that. Of course, everyone is different and if you want to watch matches as you trade, you can absolutely do that.
Many football traders don't watch the games they're trading.
Football trading is more about maths and probability than it is about football. It will be much more useful for you to know the probability of a first half goal than it will be to know whether Wayne Rooney is playing or not.
Of course, team news can present scalping opportunities but that's another discussion.
In order to make a profit, football traders identify strong opportunities and then find good risk/reward in the markets. That's all there is to it; I show you exactly how easy it is in this case study.
I would say that 90% of my time is spent carrying out research, while the other 10% is spent trading. I analyse upcoming fixtures in order to identify trading angles, test new systems and, of course, I monitor existing systems to ensure that they are still profitable.
It's certainly not a case of building a portfolio of trading systems and then trading for the next 20 years. Betfair markets are constantly evolving and traders must move with them - or fail.
With that in mind, make sure that you allocate a good proportion of your time to system analysis (or subscribe to a service such as Goal Profits which does it for you).
When trading becomes your job.
Like any job, trading has good and bad points. Personally, I think that there are far more positives!
Perhaps the best part is being able to work from home. There's no commute and no traffic to worry about; your alarm goes off in the morning, you switch the coffee machine on and get to work.
Bear in mind though that you won't have a boss peering over your shoulder and you will have to motivate yourself . Getting up at 10am and then watching daytime TV for a few hours will make you exactly £0.00 profit.
There are lots of ways to self-motivate in order to get tasks done, but money shouldn't be one of them. If you start to worry about paying bills, you're going to fall into the trap of entering weak trades in order to try and hit targets.
What works for me is making a list of tasks and then doing them in the order that they're written down. If I do the easy stuff first, I'm left with the harder tasks and I'm more likely to procrastinate.
I also find that working overnight helps. As well as keeping track of fixtures in North and South America, I can plough through my to-do list without being bombarded by emails. That might not suit you though, especially if you have a family.
Working from home has certain benefits.
A Betfair trader does not have the security of a salary, does not enjoy holiday pay or sick pay when 'man flu' hits. However, if you're making more money than you were in your old job then you can afford to save more - and you should save as much as you can to build your financial security.
Although you can sit in front of the TV with your laptop on your knees, you will be far more productive if you have a dedicated work space. Shut yourself away, work through your to-do list and then relax in front of the TV once you're done.
There are certainly times when I trade while watching TV, but I will have already done my research on the games and I can hit 'pause' if I need to concentrate for a few minutes.
Explain to your partner that, when Flashscores lets out a cheer for a goal, it's time for you to work. Even if it's just for a few seconds, you need some peace and quiet in order to check trading positions. It really helps when your partner knows what that noise means!
In my early trading days, I manually updated stats spreadsheets every day because no website provided all the trading stats necessary - and I still haven't found a single one which does. There are plenty of free stats websites out there, but they're all aimed at hobby gamblers who sign up to their bookie offers. These sites are of little use to professional traders.
Even tracking a dozen or so leagues during the winter would take a huge amount of time - and that was before I even traded or worked on developing and testing new systems. I would regularly clock up 80+ hours per week in order to get it all done.
Thankfully, the Team Stats software at Goal Profits takes most of that time-consuming admin work away and I simply couldn't trade without it these days. Rather than limited stats over a small number of leagues, I have every number I could ever dream of for 65 leagues worldwide - and no human-error mistakes to spot and correct. Team Stats has been literally life-changing!
I now spend less time researching trades, but I am able to dig into the numbers in much more detail. Doing this has transformed my trading results and given me much more time to develop other trading angles.
Stats are the tools of the trade ( no pun intended! ) and only the best will ever be good enough.
Jonny has become a full-time trader, thanks to Team Stats and the Goal Profits community. It's no longer a dream for him, or for others who are enjoying their new trading career!
Finally - and this is something which most new traders don't even consider - you must dedicate time to your health. You will be spending a lot of time at your desk rather than walking to work, wandering around the office, unloading a delivery van, or whatever it was that would get your body moving.
Why not stand while trading?
Here are some health tips:
Buy a 'standing desk' Take the dog for a walk twice a day Sign up for a 5-a-side league Run up and down the stairs 3 times every hour Go for a run before lunch Cycle rather than drive your car.
In other words, make sure you move and burn some calories!
And on the subject of calories. watch what you eat. It's very easy to sit at your desk all day and snack, so don't keep a bag of toffees in your top drawer! Just as with trading itself, be disciplined.
تذكر. healthy body, healthy mind.
Put a plan together.
حسنا. so you've decided that you really want to become a pro trader and you have identified strong motivations which are going to be your fuel.
Now, you need a plan. Exactly how are you going to make this happen?
Unless you're crazy, you're not going to quit your job before learning how to trade and proving that you have the experience and discipline to make a long-term profit. So the first stage is to show that you can do it. You might not need to prove it to your partner too, if he or she isn't sure!
It is very difficult to put a time-frame on this part so you're going to have to be flexible. Aim for an absolute minimum of six profitable months in a row - preferably more - in order to prove to yourself (and your partner) that you're ready.
And be honest with yourself. this isn't a bragging contest so be sure to record results properly.
This is the stage at which quitters quit, usually picking out a poor excuse to explain why it's 'not their fault'. " I don't have time " is the most common, followed by " I'm too busy at work ". Both of those are absolute rubbish. If you want it enough, you find a way - same as anything in life.
Hardly anyone quits after the ' proof ' stage; after this it's just a matter of time.
Once you've proven to yourself that you are disciplined and skilled enough to trade profitably over a good amount of time, decide how you're going to make the transition from ' worker ' to ' trader '.
You could, of course, just quit your job and immediately dedicate all of your time to football trading. A handful of Goal Profits members have done that, but it's a very aggressive approach and not something I'd be comfortable with myself.
A better way is to save up until you have enough to cover your bills for the next six months (minimum). There are two big benefits to this method:
Your trading decisions will not be under pressure from day one All the profit you make for the next six months (or more) will strengthen your trading bank.
My recommendation is to transition gradually from full-time working to part-time working/trading, then from part-time working/trading to full-time trading. This can be done over many months so that you do not put yourself under pressure.
You may even be able to stay with your current employer and gradually cut hours or, if getting out of that job is one of your motivations , look for something else.
It's likely to be quite a change for you - and your family - when you become a full-time trader.
You will be spending much more time at home and that takes some adjustment. After all, a bit of space tends to be good for relationships. You will also have a completely new routine to settle into; including your new health regime!
You're also going to view money differently. Whereas before it would magically arrive in your bank account every month on payday, that won't be the case any longer. You will be working for every penny you make and that is likely to make you very protective of it!
This one really does take time to adjust to and it's why I recommend going part-time first; it's much easier to make these changes and get used to them before you're ' all in '.
You may even find yourself in the same position as a number of Goal Profits members who have started the transition and stuck at part-time because they enjoy it so much.
They still get out of the house to work - though it's far less stressful - and then they get the enjoyment of trading too. Best of both worlds!
If trading turns out not to be all you dreamed of, then you can always go back to work again. but I bet you don't!
Put your plan into action.
Trading isn't easy, otherwise no-one would go to work on a Monday morning. It is more about mindset than it is systems and strategies, and that takes time to develop. There are no shortcuts!
The vast majority who set out to become full-time traders will not succeed. Many will quit because they are too lazy and thought it was all glamour and riches, while others simply don't want it enough.
Most will end up trading part-time - and that's a great place to be . You can earn a significant amount from trading part-time which will pay for a few luxuries in life or help build a retirement fund.
The only certainty is that everyone is different. Decide what you want and GO FOR IT !
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الوظائف ذات الصلة.
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Wow I am amazed at how much work you guys put into this trading ..
I am also a trader and I “work between about 1.30 pm till 4.30 every day of the week still only around twenty hours total .. I can do this at home or on the laptop anywhere really.
I do no research at all.
I know nothing about horseracing horses or jockeys or trainers.
I set my screen up and trade horses in play and using fairly small stakes I make good profits every day.
I have never lost a days profits and personally find what I do very easy.
I think you have to spend a great deal of time experimenting to find your own way of trading but when you do the rewards are fabulous.
What are your inplay techniques Gary?
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